Highlights
In the UK CPI data, June's 2.0 percent headline rate was right on the Bank of England's target but July's rate is seen climbing to 2.3 percent. In PPI, output prices are expected to rise 0.1 percent on the month while input costs drop 0.3 percent.
The year-over-year increase in Indian wholesale prices is also seen easing to 2.05 percent after rising to 3.36 percent in June from 2.61 percent in May.
In France, no revisions are expected to the provisional July CPI data, leaving a 0.1 percent monthly rise in consumer prices and a 2.3 percent annual inflation rate, the latter up from June's final 2.2 percent.
In the Eurozone, no revisions are expected to the preliminary Q2 CPI data leaving a 0.3 percent quarterly rise in GDP and annual growth of 0.6 percent.
The region's industrial production in June is expected to rise a monthly 0.7 percent in June after a 0.6 percent decline in May. June will need at least a 3.3 percent monthly surge just to keep second-quarter output flat.
In the US CPI data, overall prices are forecast to rise 0.2 percent in July after unexpectedly falling 0.1 percent in June. Core prices increased only 0.1 percent in June, which was also below expectations, with July's consensus at the headline rate of plus 0.2 percent. Annual rates, which in June were 3.0 percent overall and 3.3 percent for the core, are expected at 3.0 and 3.2 percent.
Japan's gross domestic product for the April-June quarter is forecast to post a modest rebound after suffering its first contraction in two quarters in January-March, up 0.6 percent on quarter, or an annualized 2.3 percent, as consumption and business investment picked up after having been hit by suspended output at Toyota group factories over a safety test scandal. Public works spending is also seen rebounding after a sharp drop.
The expected rebound in the second quarter GDP is unlikely to recover all of the sharp decline of 0.7 percent, or an annualized 2.9 percent in the first quarter, as elevated costs are hurting consumer spending. Domestic demand is expected to add 0.6 percentage point to total domestic output after pulling down the first quarter GDP by 0.4 point while external demand (exports minus imports) is still sluggish, trimming overall growth by 0.1 point after making a negative 0.4-point contribution in the prior quarter. Looking ahead, the economy in July-Septmeber is expected to show moderate growth as large firms are raising wages at the fastest pace in 33 years and investing in capacity to cope with labor shortages but real wages are set to show a slight gain after more than two years of year-over-year decreases. From a year earlier, the economy is expected to have fallen 1.2 percent in April-June for the second consecutive drop after slipping 0.7 percent in January-March.
Consensus forecasts for key components in percentage change on quarter except for private inventories and net exports, whose contributions are in percentage points. Figures in the previous quarter are in parentheses:
Private consumption plus 0.5, 1st rise in 5 quarters (minus 0.7)
Business investment plus 0.8, 1st rise in 2 quarters (minus 0.4)
Public investment plus 4.1, 1st rise in 4 quarters (minus 1.9)
Private inventories minus 0.1, 1st drop in 2 quarters (plus 0.3)
Net exports (external demand) minus 0.1, 2nd straight drop (minus 0.4)
Domestic demand plus 0.6, 1st rise in 5 quarters (minus 0.4)
Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is forecast at 4.1 percent in July, unchanged from 4.1 percent in June, when it inched up from 4.0 percent in May. After hitting a five-month low of 3.7 percent in February, the jobless rate climbed to 3.9 percent in March and 4.1 percent in April. The number of employed is expected to post a fourth straight monthly increase, up 22,000 in July, after surging to 50,200 in June and rising 39,700 in May.
In China, fixed asset investment for the year-to-date for July is expected to rise 3.9 percent which would match June's rate.
Chinese industrial production is forecast to show a solid 5.3 percent increase on the year in July after a 5.3 percent gain in June, which was higher than expected but slower than the 5.6 percent growth in May and a 6.7 percent jump in April.
Retail sales in China are expected to pick up to a 2.6 percent gain on the year in July after slowing sharply to a 2.0 percent rise in June from the 3.7 percent gain in May.
The year-over-year increase in Indian wholesale prices is also seen easing to 2.05 percent after rising to 3.36 percent in June from 2.61 percent in May.
In France, no revisions are expected to the provisional July CPI data, leaving a 0.1 percent monthly rise in consumer prices and a 2.3 percent annual inflation rate, the latter up from June's final 2.2 percent.
In the Eurozone, no revisions are expected to the preliminary Q2 CPI data leaving a 0.3 percent quarterly rise in GDP and annual growth of 0.6 percent.
The region's industrial production in June is expected to rise a monthly 0.7 percent in June after a 0.6 percent decline in May. June will need at least a 3.3 percent monthly surge just to keep second-quarter output flat.
In the US CPI data, overall prices are forecast to rise 0.2 percent in July after unexpectedly falling 0.1 percent in June. Core prices increased only 0.1 percent in June, which was also below expectations, with July's consensus at the headline rate of plus 0.2 percent. Annual rates, which in June were 3.0 percent overall and 3.3 percent for the core, are expected at 3.0 and 3.2 percent.
Japan's gross domestic product for the April-June quarter is forecast to post a modest rebound after suffering its first contraction in two quarters in January-March, up 0.6 percent on quarter, or an annualized 2.3 percent, as consumption and business investment picked up after having been hit by suspended output at Toyota group factories over a safety test scandal. Public works spending is also seen rebounding after a sharp drop.
The expected rebound in the second quarter GDP is unlikely to recover all of the sharp decline of 0.7 percent, or an annualized 2.9 percent in the first quarter, as elevated costs are hurting consumer spending. Domestic demand is expected to add 0.6 percentage point to total domestic output after pulling down the first quarter GDP by 0.4 point while external demand (exports minus imports) is still sluggish, trimming overall growth by 0.1 point after making a negative 0.4-point contribution in the prior quarter. Looking ahead, the economy in July-Septmeber is expected to show moderate growth as large firms are raising wages at the fastest pace in 33 years and investing in capacity to cope with labor shortages but real wages are set to show a slight gain after more than two years of year-over-year decreases. From a year earlier, the economy is expected to have fallen 1.2 percent in April-June for the second consecutive drop after slipping 0.7 percent in January-March.
Consensus forecasts for key components in percentage change on quarter except for private inventories and net exports, whose contributions are in percentage points. Figures in the previous quarter are in parentheses:
Private consumption plus 0.5, 1st rise in 5 quarters (minus 0.7)
Business investment plus 0.8, 1st rise in 2 quarters (minus 0.4)
Public investment plus 4.1, 1st rise in 4 quarters (minus 1.9)
Private inventories minus 0.1, 1st drop in 2 quarters (plus 0.3)
Net exports (external demand) minus 0.1, 2nd straight drop (minus 0.4)
Domestic demand plus 0.6, 1st rise in 5 quarters (minus 0.4)
Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is forecast at 4.1 percent in July, unchanged from 4.1 percent in June, when it inched up from 4.0 percent in May. After hitting a five-month low of 3.7 percent in February, the jobless rate climbed to 3.9 percent in March and 4.1 percent in April. The number of employed is expected to post a fourth straight monthly increase, up 22,000 in July, after surging to 50,200 in June and rising 39,700 in May.
In China, fixed asset investment for the year-to-date for July is expected to rise 3.9 percent which would match June's rate.
Chinese industrial production is forecast to show a solid 5.3 percent increase on the year in July after a 5.3 percent gain in June, which was higher than expected but slower than the 5.6 percent growth in May and a 6.7 percent jump in April.
Retail sales in China are expected to pick up to a 2.6 percent gain on the year in July after slowing sharply to a 2.0 percent rise in June from the 3.7 percent gain in May.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
