| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -22% | -22% | -32% |
Highlights
The CBI's August trends survey found orders still weak but only in line with expectations and somewhat stronger than in July. At minus 22 percent, the headline balance matched the market consensus and was up 10 percentage points from the start of the quarter. However, it remained well below its long-run average of minus 13 percent.
Past output (minus 9 percent after minus 3 percent) declined at a slightly faster pace than in July but is expected to expand modestly over the coming three months (9 percent). Expected selling prices (15 percent after 2 percent) accelerated and were above their historic norm while stock adequacy (15 percent after 10 percent) was broadly in line with its long-run mean.
The mixed August results show manufacturing just about keeping its head above water but it is no surprise that the CBI is calling on the new government to shore up demand and give businesses a reason to grow. More generally, today's report lifts both the UK RPI and the RPI-P to minus 5, close enough to zero to show recent overall economic activity performing much as forecast.
Past output (minus 9 percent after minus 3 percent) declined at a slightly faster pace than in July but is expected to expand modestly over the coming three months (9 percent). Expected selling prices (15 percent after 2 percent) accelerated and were above their historic norm while stock adequacy (15 percent after 10 percent) was broadly in line with its long-run mean.
The mixed August results show manufacturing just about keeping its head above water but it is no surprise that the CBI is calling on the new government to shore up demand and give businesses a reason to grow. More generally, today's report lifts both the UK RPI and the RPI-P to minus 5, close enough to zero to show recent overall economic activity performing much as forecast.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The headline balance gauge is seen rising from minus 32 percent in July to minus 22 percent.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
