ActualPreviousRevisedConsensus
Month over Month-0.1%0.2%-0.2%
Year over Year-2.2%0.4%-0.2%0.5%

Highlights

Retail sales dipped a monthly 0.1 percent in June which, following a revised 0.2 percent fall in May, confirmed a poor quarter for spending. The drop was the third in the last four months and means that volumes have only risen once since January. The latest decline also reduced annual growth from minus 0.2 percent to minus 2.2 percent, well below the market consensus and its weakest mark since last September.

June's monthly setback was led by the food, drink and tobacco subsector where purchases fell 0.5 percent. However, non-food demand (minus 0.1 percent) similarly contracted and auto fuel was also down 0.6 percent.

Today's update leaves overall volume sales last quarter 0.6 percent lower than in the previous period when they increased a modest 0.2 percent. The data are broadly in keeping with the recent flat trend in consumer confidence and weakening labour market and mean that the retail sector subtracted from second quarter GDP growth. The June report puts the Swiss RPI at minus 19 and the RPI-P at minus 25, both gauges still sub-zero and adding to pressure on the SNB to deliver another cut in its policy rate next month.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Yearly sales growth is put at 0.5 percent, up marginally from May's 0.4 percent.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The survey comprises around 4,000 companies with the small-sized firms asked to provide monthly turnover data on a quarterly basis. Statistics are provided in both nominal and volume measures; the latter is the more important for financial markets. The headline figure is the annual growth in sales volumes adjusted for differences in trading days. Seasonally adjusted monthly changes are also provided. Details are limited in the first estimate but a more complete picture is provided with the following month's release.

Description

Consumer spending accounts for a large portion of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you will have a pretty good idea on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that is a big advantage for investors. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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