Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
Year over Year | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
Highlights
Non-financial companies faced shrinking profit margins, with their margin rate dropping significantly to 30.8 percent, down from 31.7 percent in the previous quarter. This decline hints at cost pressures or weaker pricing power in the corporate sector. Government spending growth also slowed, while investment in fixed assets continued to contract, particularly in construction and capital goods, signalling weak business confidence and a sluggish investment climate.
On the trade front, exports grew modestly by 0.4 percent, bolstered by strong transport equipment sales, while imports recovered slightly by 0.1 percent, driven by demand for energy and food products. Consequently, foreign trade made a modest positive contribution to GDP growth.
In essence, the second quarter GDP numbers reflect an economy navigating through mixed signals: modest growth, cautious consumer behaviour, and weakening corporate margins, balanced by slight gains in trade. The flat domestic demand and inventories underscore the fragile state of the recovery, with growth largely supported by external trade.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.