ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.5%0.6%0.2%
Year over Year1.8%1.9%2.3%
HICP - M/M0.6%0.2%
HICP - Y/Y2.2%2.7%

Highlights

Month-over-month, consumer prices are anticipated to edge up by 0.6 percent in August, a slight increase from July's 0.2 percent. This may likely be fuelled by a rebound in clothing and footwear prices post-summer sales, alongside rising costs in food and services. However, energy prices are expected to decline, balancing the overall inflationary pressures.

Year-over-year, the consumer price index is expected to slow to 1.9 percent in August, down from 2.3 percent in July, largely due to a significant cooling in energy prices. This deceleration will be driven by a notable drop in petroleum product prices and a slowdown in electricity price growth, attributed to the base effect of last year's sharp tariff increase. Conversely, service prices are projected to accelerate, particularly in accommodation and transport, indicating rising demand in these sectors. Meanwhile, food, manufactured goods, and tobacco prices are expected to maintain their previous pace, signalling steady consumer demand.

The harmonised index of consumer prices mirrors these trends, with a yearly expected increase of 2.2 percent and a monthly expected rise of 0.6 percent, reflecting the broader inflationary patterns across the economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Prices are seen rising 0.5 percent on the month, reducing the annual inflation rate from July's final 2.3 percent to 1.8 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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