Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Year over Year | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.3% |
HICP - M/M | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.2% | 2.7% |
Highlights
Year-over-year, the consumer price index is expected to slow to 1.9 percent in August, down from 2.3 percent in July, largely due to a significant cooling in energy prices. This deceleration will be driven by a notable drop in petroleum product prices and a slowdown in electricity price growth, attributed to the base effect of last year's sharp tariff increase. Conversely, service prices are projected to accelerate, particularly in accommodation and transport, indicating rising demand in these sectors. Meanwhile, food, manufactured goods, and tobacco prices are expected to maintain their previous pace, signalling steady consumer demand.
The harmonised index of consumer prices mirrors these trends, with a yearly expected increase of 2.2 percent and a monthly expected rise of 0.6 percent, reflecting the broader inflationary patterns across the economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.