The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee has left the benchmark repurchase rate unchanged at 6.50 percent at its policy review held today, in line with the consensus forecast. This rate has now been on hold since February 2023 after it was earlier increased by a cumulative 250 basis points beginning in mid-2022.

Data released since the RBI's previous meeting early June have shown headline CPI inflation picking up from 4.83 percent in May to 5.08 percent in June, further above the mid-point of the RBI's target range of two percent to six percent. Recent activity data, meanwhile, have generally shown ongoing strength in economic conditions.

In the statement accompanying today's decision, RBI officials advised that they expect base effects will send inflation higher in the near-term and note that the path of disinflation towards the midpoint of their target range will depend heavily on the potential impact of weather events on food prices. They also again stressed the importance of ensuring that any increase in food prices is contained and does not put upward pressure on underlying inflation and inflation expectations. Officials remain confident in the resilience of economic activity.

Reflecting this assessment, it remains clear that the focus for officials remains on bringing inflation to 4.0 percent, the midpoint of their target range, and keeping it around that level. Officials advise that they are still focused on the"withdrawal of accommodation" and repeated their earlier pledge to maintain their"disinflationary stance" until"a durable alignment of the headline CPI inflation with the target is achieved".

Before the European and US markets open, the Reserve Bank of India is expected to announce its monetary policy decision at 10 a.m. in Mumbai Thursday (0:30 a.m. EDT/0430 GMT). The RBI is expected to hold rates steady for a ninth straight meeting. The bank's Monetary Policy Committee decided in a 4-to-2 vote to leave its policy rate unchanged at 6.50 percent in June, compared to a 5-to-1 vote in April, showing two members now called for a rate cut by 25 basis points. Market expectations are that a rate cut may come in the October-December quarter.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) issues six Bi-monthly Policy Statements a year. During these announcements the RBI will signal any shifts in its monetary stance, particularly with reference to the benchmark repo interest rate and its cash reserve ratio (CRR). The Governor will also update the Bank's view of recent economic developments and provide new forecasts for inflation and growth. A 4 percent inflation target with a +/- 2 percentage point tolerance band was formally implemented in August 2016 and will be overseen by a new six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Although the RBI monitors many economic indicators - as indeed all central banks do - the RBI most closely monitors inflation. The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity while lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, fewer homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or for those who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the financial markets, while lower interest rates are bullish.

The Reserve Bank of India was established on April 1, 1935 in accordance with the provisions of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. The Central Office of the Reserve Bank was initially established in Calcutta but was permanently moved to Mumbai in 1937. The Central Office is where the Governor sits and where policies are formulated. Though originally privately owned, since nationalization in 1949, the Reserve Bank is fully owned by the Government of India. The Reserve Bank's affairs are governed by a central board of directors. The board is appointed by the Government of India in keeping with the Reserve Bank of India Act.

The Reserve Bank of India performs this function under the guidance of the Board for Financial Supervision (BFS). The Board was constituted in November 1994 as a committee of the Central Board of Directors of the Reserve Bank of India. Primary objective of BFS is to undertake consolidated supervision of the financial sector comprising commercial banks, financial institutions and non-banking finance companies. Its function is to advise the Central Board on local matters and to represent territorial and economic interests of local cooperative and indigenous banks; to perform such other functions as delegated by Central Board from time to time. Primary objective of BFS is to undertake consolidated supervision of the financial sector comprising commercial banks, financial institutions and non-banking finance companies. The Board is required to meet normally once every month. It considers inspection reports and other supervisory issues placed before it by the supervisory departments.