ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Rate2.5%2.5% to 2.6%2.7%2.5%

Highlights

Japanese payrolls posted their 24th straight rise on year in July amid widespread labor shortages while the unemployment rate unexpectedly worsened to 2.7 percent from 2.5 percent in June but that's because a lot more people quit to look for better openings.

Sharp gains in medical/welfare and academic/tech services led the employment gain. Manufacturers and transporters continued trimming jobs from year-earlier levels. The construction industry resumed hiring.

In its monthly economic report released Thursday, the government continued to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement." It upgraded its overall economic assessment for the first time in six months, noting consumer spending is supported by wage hikes and temporary income tax credits, but the change in wording is subtle and it continues to say the economy is recovering"moderately."

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 24th straight rise on year in July amid widespread labor shortages. The unemployment rate is forecast at 2.5 percent, unchanged from June, when it improved slightly from 2.6 percent seen the previous three months (some call for 2.6 percent). In June, year-over-year job growth was led by the wholesale/retail industry and the hotels, restaurants and bars category while construction was flat and manufacturing shed jobs fell for the fourth straight month. The government sees employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement."

Definition

The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.

Description

The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.

By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
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