Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.0% |
Year over Year | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
Highlights
The steady headline rate reflected a 0.2 percent monthly increase in domestic prices that held their yearly rate stable at 2.0 percent but masked the 1.3 percent drop in import prices which reduced their annual change from minus 0.8 percent to minus 1.0 percent.
On the month, clothing and footwear posted a largely seasonal 6.3 percent drop, alone subtracting nearly 0.2 percentage points. Recreation and culture (minus 1.5 percent) and transport (minus 0.8 percent) also saw sizeable declines. On the upside, the steepest increase was in restaurants and hotels (1.3 percent) ahead of food and soft drink (0.9 percent) and alcohol and tobacco (0.5 percent). As a result, core prices were down 0.3 percent versus June, keeping the annual underlying inflation rate flat at just 1.1 percent.
The July update leaves Swiss inflation well within the SNB's definition of price stability. Indeed, with the core rate still so low and the labour market showing signs of cooling, speculation about what would be a third consecutive cut in the central bank's policy rate next month is likely to become all the more intense. More generally, today's report puts the Swiss RPI at minus 23 and the RPI-P at minus 19. Overall economic activity continues to run well behind market expectations.