Highlights
The FSO today announced that it will begin updating its retail sales database but, initially, with just the original or raw values. Seasonally adjusted figures will only be available at a later, as yet unspecified, date.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Tentative release date. Report delayed from July due to an extensive reorganisation of the processing system for short-term economic statistics in the trade and service sectors to meet new data requirements of the European Union.
German retail sales are forecast to have risen 0.1 percent on the month in May after falling 1.2 percent in April. From a year earlier, sales are expected to post a 0.7 percent dip following a 1.8 percent gain.
German retail sales are forecast to have risen 0.1 percent on the month in May after falling 1.2 percent in April. From a year earlier, sales are expected to post a 0.7 percent dip following a 1.8 percent gain.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are compiled from about 27,000 retail businesses and are reported in both nominal and volume terms. Autos are excluded. A very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the initial report which is itself subject to sometimes sizeable revision but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release.
Description
With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. However, by excluding the services sector, changes in retail sales data can differ significantly from those in total household spending.
Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. However, by excluding the services sector, changes in retail sales data can differ significantly from those in total household spending.
