ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month1.0%1.4%-2.5%-3.1%
Year over Year-3.8%-3.9%-6.7%-7.2%

Highlights

Germany's industrial sector showed promising signs of recovery with a 1.4 percent increase from the previous month, seasonally and calendar adjusted. This rebound follows a significant 3.1 percent decline in May, highlighting the industry's volatility. Year-over-year, June's production was down 3.9 percent, reflecting broader economic challenges.

The automotive industry spearheaded this positive trend, surging by 7.5 percent after a sharp 9.9 percent drop in May. Similarly, the manufacture of electrical equipment grew by 5.2 percent, contributing to the overall rise. However, the food industry's production fell by 5.3 percent, dampening the sector's performance.

Excluding energy and construction, industrial production increased by 1.5 percent from May, with capital goods up 2.5 percent and intermediate goods up 2.1 percent. Consumer goods saw a decline of 2.4 percent. Energy production rose by 2.9 percent, and construction by 0.3 percent.

Despite these monthly gains, the second quarter of 2024 was 1.3 percent lower than the first quarter, indicating ongoing instability. However, energy-intensive industries showed resilience, with production rising by 1.4 percent month-over-month and 3.8 percent year-over-year. These mixed results underscore the sector's complex recovery trajectory amid fluctuating economic conditions, taking the RPI to 15 and RPI-P to 14, in line with industrial production's recovery over the previous month.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Industrial production in June is expected to rise 1.0 percent on the month after falling a sharp 2.5 percent in May. Year-over-year contraction is seen narrowing to 3.8 percent versus May's deep contraction of 6.7 percent.

Definition

Industrial production measures the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Data are collected from companies in the sector with fifty or more employees and include mining and quarrying, manufacturing, energy and, in contrast to its Eurozone counterpart, construction.

Description

Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

Like the manufacturing orders data, the production index has the advantage of being available in a timely manner giving a more current view of business activity. Those responding to the data collection survey account for about 80 percent of total industrial production. Like the PPI and the orders data, construction is excluded.

This report has a big influence on market behavior. In any given month, one can see whether capital goods or consumer goods are growing more rapidly. Are manufacturers still producing construction supplies and other materials? This detailed report shows which sectors of the economy are growing and which are not.
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