ConsensusActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.3%0.3%0.3%
Year over Year2.3%2.3%2.3%2.2%
HICP - M/M0.5%0.5%0.5%
HICP - Y/Y2.6%2.6%2.6%

Highlights

Year-over-year, Germany's inflation rate settled at 2.3 percent in July, reflecting a slight uptick from June's 2.2 percent. This modest rise masks a more complex economic landscape, where falling energy prices exerted downward pressure on inflation, yet the cost of services and other key goods continued to climb.

Energy prices, a significant factor in tempering inflation, dropped by 1.7 percent year-over-year. Household energy costs fell sharply, with electricity and natural gas prices down 6.2 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. However, this relief was counterbalanced by soaring costs for district heating, which surged by 31.0 percent, highlighting ongoing volatility within the energy sector.

Food prices, though increasing at a slower pace than the overall inflation rate, rose by 1.3 percent, driven by sharp spikes in the cost of edible fats, oils, and confectionery. Olive oil prices, in particular, soared by 45.0 percent, adding to consumer burdens.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, remained stubbornly high at 2.9 percent, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures across broader sectors. Despite the cooling effect of cheaper energy, Germany's inflation continues to be fuelled by high core inflation, indicating that the fight against inflation is far from over. Today's update leaves the German RPI at 12 and RPI-P at 14, which implies that economic activities are performing slightly above market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the provisional data, leaving a 0.3 percent monthly increase in consumer prices and a 2.3 percent annual inflation rate, the latter up from June's final 2.2 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Germany where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Germany's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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