Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
Year over Year | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
HICP - M/M | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
Highlights
Energy prices, a significant factor in tempering inflation, dropped by 1.7 percent year-over-year. Household energy costs fell sharply, with electricity and natural gas prices down 6.2 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. However, this relief was counterbalanced by soaring costs for district heating, which surged by 31.0 percent, highlighting ongoing volatility within the energy sector.
Food prices, though increasing at a slower pace than the overall inflation rate, rose by 1.3 percent, driven by sharp spikes in the cost of edible fats, oils, and confectionery. Olive oil prices, in particular, soared by 45.0 percent, adding to consumer burdens.
Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, remained stubbornly high at 2.9 percent, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures across broader sectors. Despite the cooling effect of cheaper energy, Germany's inflation continues to be fuelled by high core inflation, indicating that the fight against inflation is far from over. Today's update leaves the German RPI at 12 and RPI-P at 14, which implies that economic activities are performing slightly above market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.