| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €17.5B | €12.3B | €12.4B |
| Imports - M/M | -2.4% | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| Imports - Y/Y | -8.6% | -6.4% | -6.9% |
| Exports - M/M | -0.2% | -2.6% | -2.8% |
| Exports - Y/Y | -6.3% | -0.5% | -0.9% |
Highlights
The seasonally adjusted merchandise trade balance improved significantly in June. At €17.5 billion, the surplus widened sharply versus May's marginally larger revised €12.4 billion and hit its second highest reading of the year so far. However, the increase only reflected a steeper fall in imports (2.4 percent) than exports (0.2 percent).
Similarly, while the unadjusted black ink stood at €22.3 billion, up from €18.0 billion a year ago, both exports (minus 6.3 percent) and imports (minus 8.6 percent) were well down from June 2023.
The June data leave a broadly flat short-term trend in exports where the 3-monthly change now stands at just 0.2 percent but a rising trend for imports where the rate is 2.2 percent. Accordingly, the profile for the overall surplus remains down, albeit from respectably high levels.
Similarly, while the unadjusted black ink stood at €22.3 billion, up from €18.0 billion a year ago, both exports (minus 6.3 percent) and imports (minus 8.6 percent) were well down from June 2023.
The June data leave a broadly flat short-term trend in exports where the 3-monthly change now stands at just 0.2 percent but a rising trend for imports where the rate is 2.2 percent. Accordingly, the profile for the overall surplus remains down, albeit from respectably high levels.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. For the Eurozone, monthly data are available for trade in goods; statistics on services are released as part of the overall quarterly current account report. The headline trade data are not adjusted for seasonal factors and so should only be viewed in relation to the outturn a year ago. However, seasonally adjusted figures available elsewhere in the report do allow for monthly comparisons.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the local currency dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for Eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade deficit/surplus can create greater/reduced demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for Eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade deficit/surplus can create greater/reduced demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
