ConsensusActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.3%0.3%0.3%
Year over Year0.6%0.6%0.6%

Highlights

The preliminary flash data for the April-June period were unrevised leaving real GDP expanding 0.3 percent on the quarter and 0.6 percent on the year.

Within the region's quarterly advance, France again expanded 0.3 percent, Italy 0.2 percent and Spain a solid 0.8 percent for a second straight quarter. All matched their respective preliminary posts. However, as shown previously, headline growth was held in check by Germany which recorded an unrevised 0.1 percent dip, its second contraction in the last three quarters. Elsewhere, Ireland (1.2 percent) had another good quarter as did Lithuania (0.9 percent) but Latvia (1.1 percent) recorded a hefty decline.

The second quarter update adds nothing to change a picture of sluggish Eurozone growth as domestic demand continues to recovery only slowly. The third quarter is likely to tell a similar story unless the German economy can gain some traction. Accordingly, businesses and consumers would more than welcome another cut in key interest rates next month. Today's reports put the Eurozone RPI at minus 11 and the RPI-P at minus 18, both measures showing just a limited degree of overall economic underperformance versus market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revisions are expected to the preliminary flash data leaving a 0.3 percent quarterly rise in GDP and annual growth of 0.6 percent.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. There are two preliminary estimates which are based on only partial data. The first is the preliminary flash, introduced in April 2016 and limited to just quarterly and annual growth statistics for the region as a whole. This is issued close to the end of the month immediately after the reference period. The second flash report, released about two weeks later, expands on the first to include growth figures for most member states but still provides no information on the GDP expenditure components.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
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