| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20-City Adjusted - M/M | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 20-City Unadjusted - M/M | 0.6% | 1.0% | |||
| 20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.9% |
Highlights
Resale prices remained strong in June, up 0.4 percent for Case-Shiller's 20-city adjusted index and up 0.6 percent unadjusted. Year-over-year, unadjusted prices rose 6.5 percent, a rate that is roughly double that of consumer inflation though down from May's 6.9 percent.
New York leads the 20-city sample with annual appreciation of 9.0 percent followed by San Diego at 8.7 percent and Las Vegas as 8.5 percent. Portland remains in the rear at only 0.8 percent appreciation.
Looking at affordability, the report notes that low-price tiers have been rising in price faster than the overall market especially for New York where, over the past five years, the low tier has risen nearly 20 percent above the overall market.
New York leads the 20-city sample with annual appreciation of 9.0 percent followed by San Diego at 8.7 percent and Las Vegas as 8.5 percent. Portland remains in the rear at only 0.8 percent appreciation.
Looking at affordability, the report notes that low-price tiers have been rising in price faster than the overall market especially for New York where, over the past five years, the low tier has risen nearly 20 percent above the overall market.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see the adjusted 20-city monthly rate rising 0.2 percent in June versus May's 0.3 percent increase.
Definition
The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.
Description
Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
