Highlights
Inflation in France is forecast to pick up slightly in July after showing some easing in June. The preliminary estimate for the year-over-year increase in consumer prices is a rise to 2.4 percent after moderating to 2.2 percent in June, amid slower gains in food and energy costs, from 2.3 percent in May. The annual rate of the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is forecast at 2.7 percent, also up from 2.5 percent.
The German unemployment rate for July is expected to hold steady at June's 6.0 percent. The jobs market has remained tight.
Among the Asian data due at 4 a.m. EDT (0800 GMT), Taiwan's April-June GDP is forecast to show the economy's export-led, technology-driven growth slowed to 4.80 percent on the year after surging to 6.56 percent in January-March from a downwardly revised 4.83 percent in the final quarter of 2023. It was the fastest expansion in nearly three years, partly in reaction to a 3.49 percent slump in the first quarter of 2023 when Taiwan was in recession.
Hong Kong's GDP growth in the second quarter is also expected to show a marked slowdown to just 0.3 percent on quarter after a 2.3 percent jump in the first quarter from 0.2 percent gains in the previous two quarters. From a year earlier, however, the economy is seen up 2.9 percent after slowing to 2.7 percent from 4.3 percent.
In the Eurozone, consensus for July's HICP flash is 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent for the narrow core. These would compare respectively with June's 2.5 and 2.9 percent and with May's 2.6 and 2.9 percent.
Italian consumer prices are seen edging 0.1 percent higher on the month In July, nudging the annual inflation rate a tick firmer to 0.9 percent.
Forecasters see ADP's July employment number at 154,000. This would compare with June growth in private payrolls reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of 136,000. ADP's number for June was 150,000.
In Canada, after rebounding 0.3 percent in April following no change in March, GDP in May is expected to rise just 0.1 percent as consumers are feeling the effects of high borrowing costs and inflation. The Bank of Canada, which conducted a back-to-back rate cut this month, still expects the economy to grow 1.5 percent at an annualized pace in the April-June quarter (data due on Aug. 30). Its first estimate for July-Septmeber GDP is a much higher 2.8 percent rise.
After the first quarter's 1.2 percent increase, forecasters see US employment costs easing to 1.0 percent in the second quarter.
The Chicago PMI is expected to fall in July to 44.3 versus June's 47.4 that was much better than expected and followed May's 35.4. Despite July's improvement, however, this index has been in long contraction.
Pending home sales in June, which fell 2.1 percent in May percent and 7.7 percent in April, are expected to rebound 1.1 percent.
At 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce the outcome of its two-day policy meeting. With growth solid and inflation still above target, the Fed is once again expected to keep rates unchanged. Whether policymakers signal a pending rate for the September meeting is considered a possibility.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a post-meeting news conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT).
South Korea's trade surplus is forecast to shrink to $4.8 billion in July after widening from $4.96 billion in May to $8.0 billion in June, when imports dropped at a faster pace and export growth slowed.
In Australia, consensus for international trade in goods in June is a surplus of A$5.0 billion versus May's surplus of A$5.8 billion that was down from April's $6.0 billion as imports rose more than exports.
In China, after 51.8 in June, S&P's manufacturing PMI in July is expected to only ease slightly to 51.5. This index has held in plus-50 ground for nine straight months.
The German unemployment rate for July is expected to hold steady at June's 6.0 percent. The jobs market has remained tight.
Among the Asian data due at 4 a.m. EDT (0800 GMT), Taiwan's April-June GDP is forecast to show the economy's export-led, technology-driven growth slowed to 4.80 percent on the year after surging to 6.56 percent in January-March from a downwardly revised 4.83 percent in the final quarter of 2023. It was the fastest expansion in nearly three years, partly in reaction to a 3.49 percent slump in the first quarter of 2023 when Taiwan was in recession.
Hong Kong's GDP growth in the second quarter is also expected to show a marked slowdown to just 0.3 percent on quarter after a 2.3 percent jump in the first quarter from 0.2 percent gains in the previous two quarters. From a year earlier, however, the economy is seen up 2.9 percent after slowing to 2.7 percent from 4.3 percent.
In the Eurozone, consensus for July's HICP flash is 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent for the narrow core. These would compare respectively with June's 2.5 and 2.9 percent and with May's 2.6 and 2.9 percent.
Italian consumer prices are seen edging 0.1 percent higher on the month In July, nudging the annual inflation rate a tick firmer to 0.9 percent.
Forecasters see ADP's July employment number at 154,000. This would compare with June growth in private payrolls reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of 136,000. ADP's number for June was 150,000.
In Canada, after rebounding 0.3 percent in April following no change in March, GDP in May is expected to rise just 0.1 percent as consumers are feeling the effects of high borrowing costs and inflation. The Bank of Canada, which conducted a back-to-back rate cut this month, still expects the economy to grow 1.5 percent at an annualized pace in the April-June quarter (data due on Aug. 30). Its first estimate for July-Septmeber GDP is a much higher 2.8 percent rise.
After the first quarter's 1.2 percent increase, forecasters see US employment costs easing to 1.0 percent in the second quarter.
The Chicago PMI is expected to fall in July to 44.3 versus June's 47.4 that was much better than expected and followed May's 35.4. Despite July's improvement, however, this index has been in long contraction.
Pending home sales in June, which fell 2.1 percent in May percent and 7.7 percent in April, are expected to rebound 1.1 percent.
At 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce the outcome of its two-day policy meeting. With growth solid and inflation still above target, the Fed is once again expected to keep rates unchanged. Whether policymakers signal a pending rate for the September meeting is considered a possibility.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a post-meeting news conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT).
South Korea's trade surplus is forecast to shrink to $4.8 billion in July after widening from $4.96 billion in May to $8.0 billion in June, when imports dropped at a faster pace and export growth slowed.
In Australia, consensus for international trade in goods in June is a surplus of A$5.0 billion versus May's surplus of A$5.8 billion that was down from April's $6.0 billion as imports rose more than exports.
In China, after 51.8 in June, S&P's manufacturing PMI in July is expected to only ease slightly to 51.5. This index has held in plus-50 ground for nine straight months.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
