Highlights
Second-quarter GDP in France is expected to increase a quarterly 0.2 percent to match the first quarter's modest pace.
French consumer spending on manufactured goods is seen falling 0.4 percent on the month in June, reversing only a fraction of May's 1.5 percent bounce.
The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator is forecast at 102.5 in July, down slightly from 102.7 in June.
In Germany, the flash estimate for second-quarter GDP is marginal expansion of 0.1 percent both on the quarter and on the year. These would compare with quarterly growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter and yearly contraction of 0.2 percent.
Italy's second-quarter GDP is expected to expand 0.2 percent versus the previous period when it grew a surprisingly respectable 0.3 percent.
The European Commission's economic sentiment index in July is expected to hold steady and flat at 96.0 versus June's 95.9, which was well short of the 100 long-run average.
Second-quarter Eurozone GDP is expected to expand a quarterly 0.2 percent for year-over-year growth of 0.5 percent. These would compare with first-quarter quarterly growth of 0.3 percent and annual growth of 0.4 percent.
Inflation in Germany is seen stable. Consensus for the July CPI annual rate is no change at June's 2.2 percent. May's rate was 2.4 percent.
Among US data, the Case-Shiller home price data is expected to show adjusted 20-city monthly prices rose 0.5 percent in May versus April's 0.4 percent increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index is expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month following a 0.2 percent increase in April. Readings in this report are tied to mortgage rates and can be volatile.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to fall back again, to a consensus 99.5 versus 100.4 in June, which compared with expectations for 100.0 and May's 101.3.
The Labor Department's JOLTS report is forecast to show 8.0 million job openings versus May's 8.14 million and April's 7.92 million. The US labor market has been cooling gradually.
South Korea's industrial production is expected to decrease another 0.6 percent on the month in June versus 1.2 percent contraction in May.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to slump 5.0 percent on the month in June in payback for a sharp 3.6 percent rebound in May on a 0.9 percent slip in April. Resumed auto production in March helped lift output in May but more revelations of false safety test records in June, this time at Toyota Motor itself, instead of its subsidiaries, as well as at other major automakers appear to have dented overall output. The METI's survey of producers indicated that output is expected to fall 6.0 percent in June before partially rebounding 3.6 percent in July. From a year earlier, factory output is expected to post the first drop in two months, down 8.2 percent, following a 1.1 percent rise in the prior month, which was the first increase in seven months.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to have risen a modest 3.0 percent on the year in June for a 28th straight increase, thanks to the late start to the rainy season that prompted more people to go out, boosting demand for summer items, following an above-forecast 2.8 percent rise in May, which was led by continued strong demand for air conditioners and a smaller drop in vehicle sales. On the month, retail sales are expected to be nearly flat, up just 0.1 percent, after marking the second straight increase, up a solid 1.1 percent in May. Last month, the METI upgraded its assessment for the first time in 15 months, saying retail sales were"on a gradual uptrend."
In Australia, the monthly CPI data for June is expected to show the annual inflation rate eased to 3.8 percent from 4.0 percent in May, when it accelerated more than expected from April's 3.6 percent rate. Inflation in April-June is seeing up 1.0 percent on quarter, the same rate as in January-March, while the year-over-year increase is expected to rise to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent.
Australian retail sales are forecast to show a 0.2 percent rise on the month in June, slowing from a 0.6 percent gain in May.
In China, the CFLP manufacturing PMI is expected to edge lower to 49.3 in July from June's 49.5, which was unchanged from May and the second straight under 50. The non-manufacturing PMI, expected at 50.2 versus June's 50.5, has held above 50 for more than a year.
The Bank of Japan board is widely expected to maintain its policy stance at its two-day meeting on July 30-31 (there are some expectations for a split vote) and wait until its next meeting on Sept. 20-21 to follow up on its first rate hike in 17 years in March by raising the overnight interest rate target to 0.25 percent from the current range of zero to 0.1 percent. Governor Kazuo Ueda has said underlying inflation estimated by the bank is moving up but still below its 2 percent target. The bank will release specific plans to reduce the size of its purchases of Japanese government bonds over a year to two years as part of its policy normalization process. It is expected to slow the pace of monthly JGB purchases to about ¥3 trillion to ¥4 trillion from about ¥6 trillion.
French consumer spending on manufactured goods is seen falling 0.4 percent on the month in June, reversing only a fraction of May's 1.5 percent bounce.
The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator is forecast at 102.5 in July, down slightly from 102.7 in June.
In Germany, the flash estimate for second-quarter GDP is marginal expansion of 0.1 percent both on the quarter and on the year. These would compare with quarterly growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter and yearly contraction of 0.2 percent.
Italy's second-quarter GDP is expected to expand 0.2 percent versus the previous period when it grew a surprisingly respectable 0.3 percent.
The European Commission's economic sentiment index in July is expected to hold steady and flat at 96.0 versus June's 95.9, which was well short of the 100 long-run average.
Second-quarter Eurozone GDP is expected to expand a quarterly 0.2 percent for year-over-year growth of 0.5 percent. These would compare with first-quarter quarterly growth of 0.3 percent and annual growth of 0.4 percent.
Inflation in Germany is seen stable. Consensus for the July CPI annual rate is no change at June's 2.2 percent. May's rate was 2.4 percent.
Among US data, the Case-Shiller home price data is expected to show adjusted 20-city monthly prices rose 0.5 percent in May versus April's 0.4 percent increase.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index is expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month following a 0.2 percent increase in April. Readings in this report are tied to mortgage rates and can be volatile.
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to fall back again, to a consensus 99.5 versus 100.4 in June, which compared with expectations for 100.0 and May's 101.3.
The Labor Department's JOLTS report is forecast to show 8.0 million job openings versus May's 8.14 million and April's 7.92 million. The US labor market has been cooling gradually.
South Korea's industrial production is expected to decrease another 0.6 percent on the month in June versus 1.2 percent contraction in May.
Japan's industrial production is forecast to slump 5.0 percent on the month in June in payback for a sharp 3.6 percent rebound in May on a 0.9 percent slip in April. Resumed auto production in March helped lift output in May but more revelations of false safety test records in June, this time at Toyota Motor itself, instead of its subsidiaries, as well as at other major automakers appear to have dented overall output. The METI's survey of producers indicated that output is expected to fall 6.0 percent in June before partially rebounding 3.6 percent in July. From a year earlier, factory output is expected to post the first drop in two months, down 8.2 percent, following a 1.1 percent rise in the prior month, which was the first increase in seven months.
Japanese retail sales are forecast to have risen a modest 3.0 percent on the year in June for a 28th straight increase, thanks to the late start to the rainy season that prompted more people to go out, boosting demand for summer items, following an above-forecast 2.8 percent rise in May, which was led by continued strong demand for air conditioners and a smaller drop in vehicle sales. On the month, retail sales are expected to be nearly flat, up just 0.1 percent, after marking the second straight increase, up a solid 1.1 percent in May. Last month, the METI upgraded its assessment for the first time in 15 months, saying retail sales were"on a gradual uptrend."
In Australia, the monthly CPI data for June is expected to show the annual inflation rate eased to 3.8 percent from 4.0 percent in May, when it accelerated more than expected from April's 3.6 percent rate. Inflation in April-June is seeing up 1.0 percent on quarter, the same rate as in January-March, while the year-over-year increase is expected to rise to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent.
Australian retail sales are forecast to show a 0.2 percent rise on the month in June, slowing from a 0.6 percent gain in May.
In China, the CFLP manufacturing PMI is expected to edge lower to 49.3 in July from June's 49.5, which was unchanged from May and the second straight under 50. The non-manufacturing PMI, expected at 50.2 versus June's 50.5, has held above 50 for more than a year.
The Bank of Japan board is widely expected to maintain its policy stance at its two-day meeting on July 30-31 (there are some expectations for a split vote) and wait until its next meeting on Sept. 20-21 to follow up on its first rate hike in 17 years in March by raising the overnight interest rate target to 0.25 percent from the current range of zero to 0.1 percent. Governor Kazuo Ueda has said underlying inflation estimated by the bank is moving up but still below its 2 percent target. The bank will release specific plans to reduce the size of its purchases of Japanese government bonds over a year to two years as part of its policy normalization process. It is expected to slow the pace of monthly JGB purchases to about ¥3 trillion to ¥4 trillion from about ¥6 trillion.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
