Highlights
Germany's Gfk consumer climate index for August is expected to rise back to minus 21.0 after falling to minus 21.8 in July from June's surprisingly sharp improvement to minus 21.0 from May's minus 24.0.
The French purchasing managers' index (PMI) data is expected to show the manufacturing index will rise to 46.0 in July from 45.4 in June while the services index will edge up to 49.8 from 49.6. The composite index is forecast at 49.1, up slightly from 48.8.
In Germany, the PMI for the manufacturing sector in July is expected to improve only slightly to 44.0 from 43.5 in June, staying well below the neutral line of 50. The services PMI, which in June slowed more than a point to a lower-than-expected 53.1, is seen rising slightly to 53.5. Consensus for July's composite index is 50.8, up from June's 50.4.
The Eurozone's composite PMI is expected to edge higher in July to 51.0 from 50.9 in June, which would still below 52.2 recorded in May. The manufacturing index in July is expected to rise slightly to 46.1 versus June's 45.8 that was down from May's 47.3 while the services index is forecast to inch ahead to 53.0 from June's 52.8.
In the UK, the manufacturing PMI, at 50.9 in June, has held over the 50 line in three of the last four reports, with July seen at 51.2. the services index, at 52.1 in June, has held over 50 for the last eight reports, with July's consensus at 52.5. The composite index is expected to rise to 52.6 from 52.3.
Sticky but easing inflation, rising unemployment and slower growth prospects have raised the possibility that the Bank of Canada's policymakers will trim the policy interest rate -- the target for overnight lending rates -- by another 25 basis points to 4.50 percent for a second straight time to help cushion the impact of its earlier rapid credit tightening aimed at taming inflation after delivering its first rate cut since March 2020 in June.
The BoC will release its quarterly monetary policy report, in which it will provide an update to its medium-term economic projections and risks analysis. In April, the bank said overall the risks to inflation was balanced but also noted that it was more concerned about the upside risks given inflation continued to be above its 2 percent target. Since then, the annual inflation rate has eased back to 2.7 percent after unexpectedly rising to 2.9 percent in May from a three-year low of 2.7 percent hit in April. Employment fell 1,400 in June after rising 27,000 in May while the unemployment rate rose to 6.4 percent from 6.2 percent.
In the US PMI data, July's consensus for manufacturing is no change at June's 51.6, which was up 3 tenths from May. Services rose 5 tenths in June to 55.3, with the consensus at 55.0 for July. Both of these indexes have been moving higher.
US new home sales have been especially volatile in recent months including revisions. After May's depressed 619,000 annual rate that followed April's strong 698,000, forecasters see sales in June improving to 640,000.
The South Korean economy has been picking up but the April-June GDP is forecast to show nearly flat growth of a 0.1 percent rise on the quarter after posting an above-consensus 1.3 percent expansion in January-March and a 0.6 percent gain in October-December. The year-over-year growth is seen slowing to 2.7 percent from 3.3 percent.
The French purchasing managers' index (PMI) data is expected to show the manufacturing index will rise to 46.0 in July from 45.4 in June while the services index will edge up to 49.8 from 49.6. The composite index is forecast at 49.1, up slightly from 48.8.
In Germany, the PMI for the manufacturing sector in July is expected to improve only slightly to 44.0 from 43.5 in June, staying well below the neutral line of 50. The services PMI, which in June slowed more than a point to a lower-than-expected 53.1, is seen rising slightly to 53.5. Consensus for July's composite index is 50.8, up from June's 50.4.
The Eurozone's composite PMI is expected to edge higher in July to 51.0 from 50.9 in June, which would still below 52.2 recorded in May. The manufacturing index in July is expected to rise slightly to 46.1 versus June's 45.8 that was down from May's 47.3 while the services index is forecast to inch ahead to 53.0 from June's 52.8.
In the UK, the manufacturing PMI, at 50.9 in June, has held over the 50 line in three of the last four reports, with July seen at 51.2. the services index, at 52.1 in June, has held over 50 for the last eight reports, with July's consensus at 52.5. The composite index is expected to rise to 52.6 from 52.3.
Sticky but easing inflation, rising unemployment and slower growth prospects have raised the possibility that the Bank of Canada's policymakers will trim the policy interest rate -- the target for overnight lending rates -- by another 25 basis points to 4.50 percent for a second straight time to help cushion the impact of its earlier rapid credit tightening aimed at taming inflation after delivering its first rate cut since March 2020 in June.
The BoC will release its quarterly monetary policy report, in which it will provide an update to its medium-term economic projections and risks analysis. In April, the bank said overall the risks to inflation was balanced but also noted that it was more concerned about the upside risks given inflation continued to be above its 2 percent target. Since then, the annual inflation rate has eased back to 2.7 percent after unexpectedly rising to 2.9 percent in May from a three-year low of 2.7 percent hit in April. Employment fell 1,400 in June after rising 27,000 in May while the unemployment rate rose to 6.4 percent from 6.2 percent.
In the US PMI data, July's consensus for manufacturing is no change at June's 51.6, which was up 3 tenths from May. Services rose 5 tenths in June to 55.3, with the consensus at 55.0 for July. Both of these indexes have been moving higher.
US new home sales have been especially volatile in recent months including revisions. After May's depressed 619,000 annual rate that followed April's strong 698,000, forecasters see sales in June improving to 640,000.
The South Korean economy has been picking up but the April-June GDP is forecast to show nearly flat growth of a 0.1 percent rise on the quarter after posting an above-consensus 1.3 percent expansion in January-March and a 0.6 percent gain in October-December. The year-over-year growth is seen slowing to 2.7 percent from 3.3 percent.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
