ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Month over Month0.1%-0.1% to 0.1%0.2%0.4%
Year over Year1.1%1.1% to 1.2%1.5%1.3%

Highlights

House prices continued to rise in June. A 0.2 percent monthly advance was a little stronger than expected and, following an unrevised 0.4 percent increase in May, lifted the yearly inflation rate from 1.3 percent to 1.5 percent, a 3-month high.

However, the 3-monthly change eased further, from 0.3 percent to 0.0 percent, its weakest reading since the three months to October last year. This suggests that the underlying trend in prices is now only broadly flat. Market activity remains relatively subdued with high mortgage rates and affordability issues hampering demand but strong earnings growth and tight supply still providing some support. Nonetheless, overall, the housing market remains resilient.

More generally, today's update puts the UK RPI at minus 17 and the RPI-P at minus 19. UK economic activity is falling somewhat short of market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The UK Nationwide house price index is forecast to edge up 0.1 percent on the month in June after rebounding in May with a larger-than-expected 0.4 percent increase that reversed April's 0.4 percent decline. The annual rate is seen slowing to 1.1 percent after rising sharply to 1.3 percent in May from 0.6 percent in April.

Definition

The Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) provides house price information derived from Nationwide lending data for properties at the post survey approval stage. Nationwide house prices are mix adjusted; that is, they track a representative house price over time rather than the simple average price.

Description

Home values affect much in the economy especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumers' ability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.

Although the Nationwide data are calculated similar to the Halifax method Nationwide substantially updated their system in 1993 following the publication of the 1991 census data. These improvements mean that Nationwide's system is more robust to lower sample sizes because it better identifies and tracks representative house prices. Historically, the data go back to 1952 on a quarterly basis and 1991 on a monthly basis.

Over long periods the Halifax and Nationwide series of house prices tend to follow similar patterns. This stems from both Nationwide and Halifax using similar statistical techniques to produce their prices. Nationwide's average price differs because the representative property tracked is different in make up to that of Halifax.
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