ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.2%0.1%0.1%
Year over Year2.4%2.3%2.2%
HICP - M/M0.3%0.2%0.2%
HICP - Y/Y2.7%2.6%2.5%

Highlights

The first estimate for the consumer price index in July is 2.3 percent annually, up from 2.2 percent in June, driven by a sharp increase in energy prices, particularly gas. This increase is somewhat mitigated by declines in services and food prices. Also, prices for manufactured products and tobacco are expected to remain steady on an annual basis.

Month-over-month, consumer prices are projected to increase slightly by 0.1 percent, mirroring June's rise. Service prices are set to climb due to seasonal hikes in transport and accommodation costs, while energy prices continue to rise, primarily because of gas. However, manufactured product prices are likely to dip due to summer sales, and food prices are anticipated to decrease slightly, with tobacco prices staying stable.

The harmonised index of consumer prices is forecasted to grow by 2.6 percent annually in July, up from 2.5 percent in June, with a monthly rise of 0.2 percent, consistent with the previous month. The data highlight the nuanced inflation landscape, where energy costs drive overall increases, yet seasonal and market-specific factors create counterbalancing effects in other sectors.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Inflation in France is forecast to pick up slightly in July after showing some easing in June. The preliminary estimate for the year-over-year increase in consumer prices is a rise to 2.4 percent after moderating to 2.2 percent in June, amid slower gains in food and energy costs, from 2.3 percent in May. The annual rate of the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) is forecast at 2.7 percent, also up from 2.5 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI represent the main rates of inflation. The national CPI is released alongside the HICP, Eurostat's harmonized measure of consumer prices. A flash estimate was released for the first time in January 2016 and is now published towards the end of each reference month.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, France's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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