Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
HICP - M/M | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
Highlights
Month-over-month, consumer prices are projected to increase slightly by 0.1 percent, mirroring June's rise. Service prices are set to climb due to seasonal hikes in transport and accommodation costs, while energy prices continue to rise, primarily because of gas. However, manufactured product prices are likely to dip due to summer sales, and food prices are anticipated to decrease slightly, with tobacco prices staying stable.
The harmonised index of consumer prices is forecasted to grow by 2.6 percent annually in July, up from 2.5 percent in June, with a monthly rise of 0.2 percent, consistent with the previous month. The data highlight the nuanced inflation landscape, where energy costs drive overall increases, yet seasonal and market-specific factors create counterbalancing effects in other sectors.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.