| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI - Y/Y | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% |
Highlights
Monthly CPI data show headline inflation in Australia moderated from 4.0 percent in May to 3.8 percent in June, matching the consensus forecast. This decline follows three consecutive increases in headline inflation and takes the level closer to the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2.0 percent to 3.0 percent. This monthly indicator measures the year-over-year change in the CPI index compared with the same month twelve months earlier.
Lower headline inflation in June was largely driven by transport costs, with the year-over-year increase in automotive fuel prices falling from 9.3 percent to 6.6 percent. Health costs also moderated, while food price inflation was steady. Other spending categories, however, recorded stronger year-over-year price increases, including clothing and footwear, communications, housing and electricity.
Today's data provide mixed signals on underlying price pressures in June. The measure of inflation that excludes volatile items including fuel and holiday travel was unchanged at 4.0 percent in June but the monthly trimmed mean measure fell from 4.4 percent to 4.1 percent.
Despite the fall in monthly headline inflation shown today, price pressures remain uncomfortably strong. At the RBA's most recent meeting, held mid-June, officials highlighted uncertainties impacting the inflation outlook and again reiterated that returning inflation to target remains their highest priority. This suggests that a cut in policy rates remains unlikely in upcoming meetings and that officials will again consider a rate increase at their meeting scheduled for next week.
Lower headline inflation in June was largely driven by transport costs, with the year-over-year increase in automotive fuel prices falling from 9.3 percent to 6.6 percent. Health costs also moderated, while food price inflation was steady. Other spending categories, however, recorded stronger year-over-year price increases, including clothing and footwear, communications, housing and electricity.
Today's data provide mixed signals on underlying price pressures in June. The measure of inflation that excludes volatile items including fuel and holiday travel was unchanged at 4.0 percent in June but the monthly trimmed mean measure fell from 4.4 percent to 4.1 percent.
Despite the fall in monthly headline inflation shown today, price pressures remain uncomfortably strong. At the RBA's most recent meeting, held mid-June, officials highlighted uncertainties impacting the inflation outlook and again reiterated that returning inflation to target remains their highest priority. This suggests that a cut in policy rates remains unlikely in upcoming meetings and that officials will again consider a rate increase at their meeting scheduled for next week.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consumer prices in June are expected to slow to 3.8 percent year-over-year versus 4.0 percent in May which compared unfavourably with expectations for 3.8 percent and April's 3.6 percent rate.
Definition
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by households for a fixed basket of goods and services. In Australia, the CPI measures the changes in the price of a fixed basket of goods and services, acquired by household consumers who are residents in the eight State/Territory capital cities. (Darwin, Perth, Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide).
Data are released quarterly and, since 2022, monthly. Quarterly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same quarter twelve months previously. Monthly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same month twelve months previously.
Data are released quarterly and, since 2022, monthly. Quarterly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same quarter twelve months previously. Monthly inflation data measure the year-over-year change in the index relative to the same month twelve months previously.
Description
The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as Australia, where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index. It has an inflation target of 2 percent to 3 percent. The RBA also has two preferred core or analytical measures - the weighted and trimmed means. The trimmed mean is a method of averaging that removes a small percentage of the largest and smallest values before calculating the mean. After removing the specified observations, the trimmed mean is found using an arithmetic averaging formula. The weighted mean excludes certain items from the CPI basket (the exclusion approach). Typically, the excluded items are those that are volatile and/or display pronounced seasonal patterns, and those that are subject to administrative price setting.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
For monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of Australia generally follows the annual change in the consumer price index. It has an inflation target of 2 percent to 3 percent. The RBA also has two preferred core or analytical measures - the weighted and trimmed means. The trimmed mean is a method of averaging that removes a small percentage of the largest and smallest values before calculating the mean. After removing the specified observations, the trimmed mean is found using an arithmetic averaging formula. The weighted mean excludes certain items from the CPI basket (the exclusion approach). Typically, the excluded items are those that are volatile and/or display pronounced seasonal patterns, and those that are subject to administrative price setting.
