| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$5.0B | A$5.589B | A$5.773B | A$5.052B |
| Imports - M/M | 0.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | |
| Imports - Y/Y | 3.1% | 3.4% | -1.0% | |
| Exports - M/M | 1.7% | 2.8% | 1.3% | |
| Exports -Y/Y | -4.5% | -7.1% | -9.4% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade surplus widened from a revised A$5.052 billion in May to A$5.589 billion in June, above the consensus forecast of A$5.0 billion. Exports grew at a stronger pace while import growth slowed.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 1.7 percent on the month in June after an increase of 1.3 percent in May. Exports of non-rural goods rose at a slower pace, but this mainly reflects a big spike in exports of transport equipment in May. Exports of rural goods rebounded strongly from a previous decline. Exports fell 4.5 percent on the year in June after a decline of 9.4 percent in May.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 0.5 percent on the month in June, slowing from an increase of 3.3 percent in May. Imports of consumption goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods weakened, partly offset by stronger growth in imports of capital goods. Total imports rose 3.1 percent on the year in June after falling 1.0 percent in May.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports rose 1.7 percent on the month in June after an increase of 1.3 percent in May. Exports of non-rural goods rose at a slower pace, but this mainly reflects a big spike in exports of transport equipment in May. Exports of rural goods rebounded strongly from a previous decline. Exports fell 4.5 percent on the year in June after a decline of 9.4 percent in May.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose 0.5 percent on the month in June, slowing from an increase of 3.3 percent in May. Imports of consumption goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods weakened, partly offset by stronger growth in imports of capital goods. Total imports rose 3.1 percent on the year in June after falling 1.0 percent in May.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for international trade in goods in June is a surplus of A$5.0 billion versus May's surplus of A$5.8 billion that was down from April's $6.0 billion as imports rose more than exports.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
