ConsensusActualPrevious
Index45.345.446.4

Highlights

Manufacturing activity was revised just marginally firmer in the final data for June. The flash sector PMI was nudged up 0.1 point to 45.4 but remains a full point short of its final May print and well below the 50-expansion threshold. The minor positive revision does nothing to impact another dismal month for French manufacturing.

Ominously, new orders fell at an accelerated rate on the back of extended weakness in the domestic market. Overseas demand also contracted but by the least in three months. Output has now declined for more than two years and purchasing activity last month decreased at the steepest pace in the year-to-date. Employment was pared for a thirteenth straight month and while business confidence remained positive, it was slightly lower than in May.

Not helping matters, inflationary pressures again picked up. Input cost inflation accelerated to a 17-month high and factory gate prices climbed by the most since March 2023.

In sum, French manufacturing remains firmly in the doldrums and with demand still falling, a near-term recovery still looks very unlikely. Today's update puts the French RPI at minus 15 and the RPI-P at minus 5, both measures showing economic activity in general struggling to keep up with market forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision is expected to the flash data.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 400 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are released by S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures..

The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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