The headline index fell at the start of the quarter for the first time since March. At 101.0, the July reading was 1.7 points below its unrevised June print and 1.5 points short of the market consensus. However, while a 4-month low, this month's outturn was still just above the 100 long-run average.

The monthly slide was mainly attributable to weaker performances by consumer and foreign demand although hospitality, construction, other services and manufacturing all lost ground too. By contrast, there were gains in the financial and insurance services sector.

In sum, the July report points to moderate, albeit slowing, growth of GDP over coming months. It also leaves the Swiss RPI (minus 33) and RPI-P (minus 25) well below zero, showing that economic activity is general is still falling behind market forecasts.

The KOF Swiss Leading Indicator is forecast at 102.5 in July, down slightly from 102.7 in June.

The KOF Economic Indicator is a composite leading indicator that aims to identify shifts in the Swiss business cycle around three months ahead of the actual event and, until the start of 2014, was based on twenty-five different economic indicators. The old version of the KOF Economic Indicator used the previous year's GDP growth rate published by the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) as a yardstick. The revised measure still incorporates SECO data; however, KOF has changed over to month-on-month changes in GDP which are generated via statistical methods. This reference series is not about exact GDP figures but about the direction and strength of the economic trend. The new objective of the Barometer is the same as the old objective: achieving maximum possible accuracy in predicting the Swiss business cycle.

The indicator measures overall economic activity through a qualitative business survey about developments in the recent past, the current situation and expectations for the next three to six months. Getting an accurate handle on where the economy is headed is inevitably a vital element in all investment decisions and the new measure uses some 219 variables in order to do just that. The set of variables will be reviewed every autumn.

Survey questions relate to production, orders and stocks of finished goods. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute publishes this indicator monthly.