ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.2%0.4%-0.1%
Year over Year0.4%-1.9%

Highlights

The retail trade sector experienced a slight improvement in May 2024, as evidenced by a 0.4 percent increase in value and 0.2 percent increase in volume in the seasonally adjusted index compared to April. Sales value increased by 0.1 percent in the three months preceding May, while sales volume decreased by 0.1 percent. This indicates a divergence between the number of products sold and the amount of money spent.

Retail trade value increased by 0.4 percent year-over-year following a decline in April; however, sales volume continued to decline by 0.8 percent. The large-scale distribution sector performed well, with a 0.9 percent increase. Small-scale distribution experienced a 0.2 percent increase, while non-store retail sales decreased by 1.6 percent. Furthermore, online sales experienced a significant year-over-year decline of 1.4 percent, despite experiencing growth in April.

The sales of non-food products showed mixed results: optical instruments and photographic equipment surged by 3.4 percent, while cosmetics and lavatory articles edged up by 3.2 percent. Conversely, there was a substantial decrease of 6.2 percent in the sales of electric household appliances and audio-video equipment. These trends indicate that consumer preferences and purchasing patterns are evolving, with specific shifts towards niche markets, despite the broader challenges in retail volume.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Nominal sales are seen up 0.2 percent versus April when they slipped 0.1 percent.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are expressed in nominal terms but volume statistics are also available. Autos are excluded. Only a very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the first report but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release. The Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) is the main producer of official statistics in Italy.

Description

With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.
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