Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 0.9% | 0.7% |
Highlights
This provisional estimate is largely fuelled by the robust services sector, which significantly contributed to GDP growth. Conversely, the agriculture, forestry, fishing, and industrial sectors posted negative contributions, highlighting sectoral disparities. On the demand side, domestic consumption, including inventories, positively impacted GDP, while the net foreign component had a negative effect.
The data underscore a cautiously optimistic economic outlook, driven primarily by domestic demand and resilience in the services sector. The mixed performance across sectors emphasizes the need to strengthen weaker sectors, particularly agriculture and industry while leveraging the resilience of the services sector. Thus, fostering balanced growth across all sectors is crucial for maintaining and enhancing Italy's economic stability and expansion. As a result of the positive overall economic numbers, the RPI and the RPI-P both climbed to 4, indicating that the Italian economy is performing slightly below market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.