Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
HICP - M/M | -0.8% | 0.2% | |
HICP - Y/Y | 1.7% | 0.9% |
Highlights
Conversely, prices for unprocessed foods fell from 0.3 percent to minus 0.3 percent, services miscellaneous slowed from 1.8 percent to 1.5 percent, non-durable goods decreased from 1.3 percent to 1.0 percent, processed food (including alcohol) slowed from 2.0 percent to 1.8 percent, and durable goods further declined from minus 1.0 percent to minus 1.2 percent.
Core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, remained stable at 1.9 percent, while inflation excluding energy dipped slightly from 1.9 percent to 1.8 percent. Goods saw a year-over-year growth rate improvement from minus 0.7 percent to minus 0.1 percent, and services rose from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent, reducing the inflationary gap between goods and services from 3.5 to 3.1 percentage points.
The Italian harmonized index of consumer prices decreased by 0.8 percent monthly due to summer sales and increased by 1.7 percent annually, up from 0.9 percent in June.
Recent inflation trends in Italy over the past four months indicate a moderate inflationary environment, suggesting stable economic conditions relative to other Euro area countries experiencing higher inflation rates. Italy's RPI rose from 4 to 25, while the RPI-P rose from 4 to 15, indicating that Italy is performing quite well above market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.