ConsensusActualPrevious
Month over Month0.1%0.5%0.1%
Year over Year0.9%1.3%0.8%
HICP - M/M-0.8%0.2%
HICP - Y/Y1.7%0.9%

Highlights

In July, the Italian consumer price index rose by 0.5 percent month-over-month and 1.3 percent year-over-year, up from 0.8 percent in June. This uptick was primarily driven by a significant surge in regulated energy product prices, which jumped from 3.5 percent to 11.3 percent, and non-regulated energy products, which reduced their decline from minus 10.3 percent to minus 6.1 percent. Tobacco prices also increased from 3.4 percent to 4.1 percent, and services related to recreation, including repair and personal care, saw a modest rise from 4.0 percent to 4.4 percent.

Conversely, prices for unprocessed foods fell from 0.3 percent to minus 0.3 percent, services miscellaneous slowed from 1.8 percent to 1.5 percent, non-durable goods decreased from 1.3 percent to 1.0 percent, processed food (including alcohol) slowed from 2.0 percent to 1.8 percent, and durable goods further declined from minus 1.0 percent to minus 1.2 percent.

Core inflation, excluding energy and unprocessed food, remained stable at 1.9 percent, while inflation excluding energy dipped slightly from 1.9 percent to 1.8 percent. Goods saw a year-over-year growth rate improvement from minus 0.7 percent to minus 0.1 percent, and services rose from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent, reducing the inflationary gap between goods and services from 3.5 to 3.1 percentage points.

The Italian harmonized index of consumer prices decreased by 0.8 percent monthly due to summer sales and increased by 1.7 percent annually, up from 0.9 percent in June.

Recent inflation trends in Italy over the past four months indicate a moderate inflationary environment, suggesting stable economic conditions relative to other Euro area countries experiencing higher inflation rates. Italy's RPI rose from 4 to 25, while the RPI-P rose from 4 to 15, indicating that Italy is performing quite well above market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Prices are seen edging 0.1 percent higher on the month, nudging the annual inflation rate a tick firmer to 0.9 percent.

Definition

The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the average price level of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. Monthly and annual changes in the CPI provide widely used measures of inflation. A provisional estimate, with limited detail, is released about two weeks before the final data are reported.

Description

The consumer price index is the most widely followed indicator of inflation. An investor who understands how inflation influences the markets will benefit over those investors that do not understand the impact. In countries such as the Italy where monetary policy decisions rest on the central bank's inflation target, the rate of inflation directly affects all interest rates charged to business and the consumer. As a member of the European Monetary Union, Italy's interest rates are set by the European Central Bank.

Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.

Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.

By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.
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