| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 0.10 | -0.06 to 0.30 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.09 |
Highlights
The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is down to positive 0.05 in June after 0.23 in May. The June reading is below the consensus of positive 0.10 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 1 positive and 3 negative contributions in June. Among the categories all four decreased.
Production-related indicators are down to positive 0.11 in June after positive 0.23 in May. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to 0.02 in June after positive 0.01 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are down to 0.02 in June after positive 0.01 in May. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are down to minus 0.02 in June after positive 0.00 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in June is minus 0.01 compared to minus 0.08 in the prior month.
Overall, the report suggests that underlying activity remains sluggish and without much upward momentum.
Production-related indicators are down to positive 0.11 in June after positive 0.23 in May. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to 0.02 in June after positive 0.01 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are down to 0.02 in June after positive 0.01 in May. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are down to minus 0.02 in June after positive 0.00 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in June is minus 0.01 compared to minus 0.08 in the prior month.
Overall, the report suggests that underlying activity remains sluggish and without much upward momentum.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The national activity index is expected to slow to plus 0.10 in June versus May's higher-than-expected 0.18 and April's lower-than-expected minus 0.26.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Description
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
