The labour market continued to loosen as the number of unemployed people increased by 18,000 to 2.8 million in July, marking the 19th consecutive month of rising unemployment. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6 percent, aligning with market expectations and the previous month's rate. Job vacancies also fell by 8,000, following an 11,000 drop in June, indicating a persistent decline in demand for new hires.

This trend reflects an economy in the early recovery stages from a near-recession, with rising joblessness potentially restraining household spending, which has been stagnant since mid-2023. The increase in unemployment is partly due to reduced investments in equipment and construction, as suggested by projected real GDP numbers.

Overall, the data points to a labour market struggling to gain momentum amid a slow economic recovery, highlighting the challenges in boosting employment and investment levels. Additionally, the German RPI and the RPI-P now stand at -33 and -50, respectively, indicating economic activity lagging behind market forecasts.

July's unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at June's 6.0 percent. The Germany jobs market has remained tight.

The unemployment rate is calculated by the Federal Employment Agency based on the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the number of all civilian members of the labour force (dependant civilian employed persons, the self-employed family workers and unemployed). Unemployed is defined as persons who between the ages of 15 and 65 and who are without employment or only with short-time employment (currently less than 15 hours per week) and seeking an employment of at least 15 hours per week subject to compulsory insurance.

A snag to understanding German unemployment data comes from the fact that there are several measures of unemployment available. Unemployment rates calculated by the Bundesbank are preferred but some German analysts check the unadjusted rates as well. And then there are still different rates for unemployment that are used by Eurostat to compute their unemployment rate. The spread between the Bundesbank rates and Eurostat can be quite significant. The reason for the often sizeable differential is found in the interpretation of the ILO definition.

Unlike in the U.S. no wage data are included in this report. But by tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.