ConsensusActualPrevious
Composite Index51.752.353.0
Services Index51.252.152.9

Highlights

The UK composite index sits at 52.3, 0.6 points above its flash estimate for June (51.7) but 0.7 points less than in May (53.0). This means that while the economy is expanding at a slower rate than in May, the UK is still doing much better than estimated earlier in the June flash reports.

The service index is 52.1, 0.9 points above the June flash estimate (51.2) but also 0.8 points less than in May (52.9). This means that there is a slower expansion rate than in May. However, with the final index much higher than its flash estimate, this hints that the last half of June was better than the first half based on responses later in the month.

The improvement is likely due to an increase in new work orders, some of which were delayed or slowed by client hesitancy over the General Election, making this the weakest growth of new business in the last seven months.

Operating costs continue to rise as wages are listed as a source of inflation. However, employment growth was sustained, albeit only slightly. The rate of inflation accelerated since May, being one of the highest seen since 1996.

The UK RPI now stands at minus 6 and RPI-P at 0, both showing economic activity in general is within market forecasts.

Definition

The Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of service sector business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating transport and communication, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT and hotels and restaurants. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). The data are compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) and S&P Global.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM non-manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI services data give a detailed look at the services sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. The indexes are widely used by businesses, governments and economic analysts in financial institutions to help better understand business conditions and guide corporate and investment strategy. In particular, central banks in many countries use the data to help make interest rate decisions. PMI surveys are the first indicators of economic conditions published each month and are therefore available well ahead of comparable data produced by government bodies.
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