| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.2% | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
| Year over Year | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% |
Highlights
House prices fell 0.2 percent on the month In June according to the new survey from the Halifax. The unexpected decline, the first since March, followed a stronger revised flat performance in May and left the annual inflation rate unchanged at 1.6 percent, matching a 5-month high. Average prices remain well above their pre-pandemic levels.
Still, the 3-monthly change - the best guide to underlying developments decreased again and at now minus 0.5 percent, saw its lowest reading since the three months ending October last year. Indeed, house prices have risen just 0.4 percent so far in 2024, implying an essentially flat trend as a sluggish recovery in market activity vies with an ongoing shortage of supply. The lender anticipated a similar pattern over the rest of the year.
More generally, today's update puts the UK RPI at minus 4 and the RPI-P at minus 5, indicating overall economic activity moving broadly in line with market expectations.
Still, the 3-monthly change - the best guide to underlying developments decreased again and at now minus 0.5 percent, saw its lowest reading since the three months ending October last year. Indeed, house prices have risen just 0.4 percent so far in 2024, implying an essentially flat trend as a sluggish recovery in market activity vies with an ongoing shortage of supply. The lender anticipated a similar pattern over the rest of the year.
More generally, today's update puts the UK RPI at minus 4 and the RPI-P at minus 5, indicating overall economic activity moving broadly in line with market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Prices are expected to increase 0.2 percent on the month following a 0.1 percent dip in May.
Definition
The Halifax House Price Index (HPI) is the UK's longest running monthly house price measure with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983. The index is based on the largest monthly sample of mortgage data, typically covering around 15,000 house purchases per month, and covers the whole calendar month. In March 2016 Markit announced that it would be acquiring the Halifax HPI from Lloyds Banking Group. Halifax continues to publish the index on behalf of Markit and both the name and the basic methodology remain unchanged. However, in May 2020, the annual growth measure was changed from the average of the last three months to just the latest month.
Description
Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can damp housing starts. Changes in home values play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health. During the first half of this decade sharply rising home prices boosted how much home equity households held. In turn, this increased consumers' ability to spend, based on wealth effects and from being able to draw upon expanding home equity lines of credit.
