Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
HICP - M/M | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% |
Narrow Core - M/M | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Narrow Core - Y/Y | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
Highlights
The final core rates were also in line with their flash estimates. This left the narrowest measure at 2.9 percent, unchanged from May, and the measure excluding just energy and unprocessed food only 0.1 percentage point lower at 2.8 percent. Services were again a problem with the rate here holding steady at a worryingly solid 4.1 percent, some 0.4 percentage points above April's recent low. Elsewhere, non-energy industrial goods were similarly steady but at just 0.7 percent while energy (0.2 percent after 0.3 percent) and food, alcohol and tobacco (2.4 percent after 2.6 percent) both had a minor negative impact.
Regionally, headline inflation cooled in France (2.5 percent after 2.6 percent), Germany (2.5 percent after 2.8 percent), and Spain (3.6 percent after 3.8 percent) but edged firmer from an easily sub-target level in Italy (0.9 percent after 0.8 percent).
The final June data will have no impact on the tomorrow's ECB announcement. Unchanged key interest rates seem all but given meaning that there will be no cut until at least 12 September when the central banks holds its the first meeting after the summer recess. Today's update puts the Eurozone RPI at 23 and the RPI-P at 28, both readings pointing to a modest degree of recent outperformance by economic activity in general.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.