ConsensusActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.2%0.3%0.3%
Year over Year0.5%0.6%0.4%

Highlights

The preliminary flash data for the April-June period showed the Eurozone recovery still struggling to gain any real traction. Real GDP expanded at a 0.3 percent quarterly rate, a tick above the market consensus but only matching the modest pace posted at the start of the year. Annual growth was 0.6 percent, up from marginally from a stronger revised 0.5 percent previously.

Within the region's quarterly advance, France again expanded 0.3 percent, Italy 0.2 percent and Spain a solid 0.8 percent for a second straight quarter. However, headline growth was held in check by Germany which posted a 0.1 percent dip, its second contraction in the last three quarters. Elsewhere, Ireland (1.2 percent) had another good quarter as did Lithuania (0.9 percent) but Latvia (1.1 percent) recorded a hefty decline.

In sum, the second quarter report shows the Eurozone economy stuck on a sluggish recovery path that will probably leave the ECB viewing the current downside risk assessment to its latest growth forecast as still appropriate. Germany clearly remains a major problem and with earlier hopes that its manufacturing sector might be on the turn now fading, looks likely to stay so for some time. All of which suggests that businesses would more than welcome a cut in key interest rates next month. However, for that to materialise, tomorrow's flash HICP report will need to be favourable.

That said, today's reports put the Eurozone RPI at minus 5 and the RPI-P at minus 7, both measures showing only a very limited degree of overall economic underperformance versus market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Second-quarter Eurozone GDP is expected to expand a quarterly 0.2 percent for year-over-year growth of 0.5 percent. These would compare with first-quarter quarterly growth of 0.3 percent and annual growth of 0.4 percent.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. There are two preliminary estimates which are based on only partial data. The first is the preliminary flash, introduced in April 2016 and limited to just quarterly and annual growth statistics for the region as a whole. This is issued close to the end of the month immediately after the reference period. The second flash report, released about two weeks later, expands on the first to include growth figures for most member states but still provides no information on the GDP expenditure components.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data, which follow the international classification system (SNA93), are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.
Upcoming Events

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2025 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.