Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Quarter over Quarter | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
Year over Year | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
Highlights
Within the region's quarterly advance, France again expanded 0.3 percent, Italy 0.2 percent and Spain a solid 0.8 percent for a second straight quarter. However, headline growth was held in check by Germany which posted a 0.1 percent dip, its second contraction in the last three quarters. Elsewhere, Ireland (1.2 percent) had another good quarter as did Lithuania (0.9 percent) but Latvia (1.1 percent) recorded a hefty decline.
In sum, the second quarter report shows the Eurozone economy stuck on a sluggish recovery path that will probably leave the ECB viewing the current downside risk assessment to its latest growth forecast as still appropriate. Germany clearly remains a major problem and with earlier hopes that its manufacturing sector might be on the turn now fading, looks likely to stay so for some time. All of which suggests that businesses would more than welcome a cut in key interest rates next month. However, for that to materialise, tomorrow's flash HICP report will need to be favourable.
That said, today's reports put the Eurozone RPI at minus 5 and the RPI-P at minus 7, both measures showing only a very limited degree of overall economic underperformance versus market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.