Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Annual Rate | 4.000M | 3.900M to 4.250M | 3.890M | 4.11M |
Month over Month | -5.4% | -0.7% | ||
Year over Year | -5.4% | -2.8% |
Highlights
Sales in June are from contracts signed a month or two earlier when mortgage rates were at a near-term peak. The average rate for a Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage was over 7 percent in April and May, but started to decline in the second half of June. Rates are now below 7 percent and expected to stay there for the immediate future. This could boost sales in the coming months as the market for existing homes is showing increased supply that should ease the upward trend for prices.
The months' supply of homes on the market is up to 4.1 in June from 3.7 in May and is the highest in over 4 years. With more selection, potential homebuyers will not be competing as aggressively for units that are just coming on to the market and may be willing to wait in the expectation that more choices will become available. The median prices of an existing home is up 2.3 percent in June to $426,900 from $417,200 in May, and up 4.1 percent from $410,100 in the year ago month.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said,"We're seeing a slow shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market." He continued,"Homes are sitting on the market a bit longer, and sellers are receiving fewer offers. More buyers are insisting on home inspections and appraisals, and inventory is definitively rising on a national basis." He also noted,"Even as the median home price reached a new record high, further large accelerations are unlikely. Supply and demand dynamics are nearing a balanced market condition. The months supply of inventory reached its highest level in more than four years."
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer.
Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month. Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.