| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales - M/M | -0.3% | -0.6% to 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Ex-Vehicles - M/M | 0.1% | -0.5% to 0.2% | 0.4% | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M | 0.1% | -0.1% to 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.3% |
Highlights
The dollar value of retail and food services sales came in unchanged in June after a 2-tenths upward revision in May to plus 0.3 percent. Though flat, June's reading did beat Econoday's consensus for a 0.3 percent decline.
Sales of motor vehicles fell 2.3 percent in June much as expected. Similarly, sales at gasoline stations fell 3.0 percent in June reflecting lower pump prices. However, sales in other categories proved stronger than anticipated.
Sales excluding vehicles rose 0.4 percent in June and, like the headline, were revised 2-tenths higher in May to up 0.1 percent. Retail and food sales excluding vehicles and gasoline rose a strong 0.8 percent in June and were revised higher in May to up 0.3 percent.
The modest upward revision in May and no revision to April suggest that consumer spending in the second quarter 2024 will be a bit stronger than previously thought. This could mean some revisions higher for second quarter GDP when the advance report is released at 8:30 ET on Thursday, July 25.
Outside of motor vehicle and gasoline sales, there are three categories that were solid performers. Sales at nonstore retailers rose 1.9 percent in June, accounting for 17.4 percent of all sales. Sales were 1.4 percent higher for building materials and garden centers in June, accounting for 5.8 percent of all sales. Sales in health and personal care gained 0.9 percent, accounting for 5.2 percent of all sales. And, although only a small share of total sales, furniture and home furnishings rose 0.6 percent in June and clothing was also up 0.6 percent. These contributed shares of 1.6 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively.
It is likely that retailers were getting ahead of some summer sales with heavy discounting, but also that consumers were willing to purchase summer merchandise in anticipation of lean inventories in July and August when retailers bring in fall merchandise.
These results lift Econoday's Relative Performance Index to plus 15, one of the best scores of the last several months to indicate that US economic data, on net, are now beating forecasts. Yet given how subdued forecasts have been, outperformance isn't likely to shelve talk of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Sales of motor vehicles fell 2.3 percent in June much as expected. Similarly, sales at gasoline stations fell 3.0 percent in June reflecting lower pump prices. However, sales in other categories proved stronger than anticipated.
Sales excluding vehicles rose 0.4 percent in June and, like the headline, were revised 2-tenths higher in May to up 0.1 percent. Retail and food sales excluding vehicles and gasoline rose a strong 0.8 percent in June and were revised higher in May to up 0.3 percent.
The modest upward revision in May and no revision to April suggest that consumer spending in the second quarter 2024 will be a bit stronger than previously thought. This could mean some revisions higher for second quarter GDP when the advance report is released at 8:30 ET on Thursday, July 25.
Outside of motor vehicle and gasoline sales, there are three categories that were solid performers. Sales at nonstore retailers rose 1.9 percent in June, accounting for 17.4 percent of all sales. Sales were 1.4 percent higher for building materials and garden centers in June, accounting for 5.8 percent of all sales. Sales in health and personal care gained 0.9 percent, accounting for 5.2 percent of all sales. And, although only a small share of total sales, furniture and home furnishings rose 0.6 percent in June and clothing was also up 0.6 percent. These contributed shares of 1.6 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively.
It is likely that retailers were getting ahead of some summer sales with heavy discounting, but also that consumers were willing to purchase summer merchandise in anticipation of lean inventories in July and August when retailers bring in fall merchandise.
These results lift Econoday's Relative Performance Index to plus 15, one of the best scores of the last several months to indicate that US economic data, on net, are now beating forecasts. Yet given how subdued forecasts have been, outperformance isn't likely to shelve talk of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
June sales are expected to fall 0.3 percent versus up 0.1 and down 0.2 percent in the two prior months. Such a result would wind up a dismal second quarter. May's ex-auto sales decreased 0.1 percent with June expected to rise 0.1 percent. June ex-auto ex-gas are also expected at plus 0.1 percent.
Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth. Of special attention is the control group; this is an input into the consumer spending component of GDP and excludes food services, autos, gasoline and building materials.
Description
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know how the consumer sector is faring, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth becomes excessive and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Spending rebounded in 2010 and 2011 but was constrained by lingering high unemployment.
Importance
Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. The control group for retail sales (which excludes restaurants, vehicles, gasoline and building materials) is an input into GDP and offers a narrower look at nondiscretionary spending.
Interpretation
Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market.
Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data.
In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales. In recent years, many analysts consider the core series to be total less autos and less gasoline service station sales. The latter is volatile due to swings in oil and gasoline prices.
Price changes affect the real value of retail sales. Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales.
Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities.
The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth becomes excessive and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
Balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005. By 2007, the credit crunch was well underway and starting to undermine growth in consumer spending. Later in 2008 and 2009, the rise in unemployment and loss of income during the recession also cut into retail sales. Spending rebounded in 2010 and 2011 but was constrained by lingering high unemployment.
Importance
Retail sales are a major indicator of consumer spending trends because they account for nearly one-half of total consumer spending and approximately one-third of aggregate economic activity. The control group for retail sales (which excludes restaurants, vehicles, gasoline and building materials) is an input into GDP and offers a narrower look at nondiscretionary spending.
Interpretation
Strong retail sales are bearish for the bond market, but favorable for the stock market, particularly retail stocks. Sluggish retail sales could lead to a bond market rally, but will probably be bearish for the stock market.
Retail sales are subject to substantial month-to-month variability. In order to provide a more accurate picture of the consumer spending trend, follow the three-month moving average of the monthly percent changes or the year-over-year percent change. Retail sales are also subject to substantial monthly revisions, which makes it more difficult to discern the underlying trend. This problem underscores the need to monitor the moving average rather than just the latest one month of data.
In an attempt to avoid the more extreme volatility, economists and financial market participants monitor retail sales less autos (actually less auto dealers which include trucks, too.) Motor vehicle sales are excluded not because they are irrelevant, but because they fluctuate more than overall retail sales. In recent years, many analysts consider the core series to be total less autos and less gasoline service station sales. The latter is volatile due to swings in oil and gasoline prices.
Price changes affect the real value of retail sales. Watch for changes in food and energy prices which could affect two large components among nondurable goods stores: food stores and gasoline service stations. Large declines in food or energy prices could lead to declines in store sales which are due to price, not volume. This would mean that real sales were stronger than nominal dollar sales.
Since economic performance depend on real, rather than nominal growth rates, compare the trend growth rate in retail sales to that in the CPI for commodities.
