Highlights

Jerome Powell offered no hints in this opening statement that a rate cut is in the offing. Instead, Powell said any shift in monetary policy will depend on how incoming data"unfold" and how the economic outlook"evolves".

Powell cited progress in its inflation fight during the second quarter, saying nominal wage growth has eased and that the PCE and PCE core indexes, at 2.5 and 2.6 percent respectively, have moved closer to the Fed's 2.0 percent goal.

He said the labor market is in"better balance" with nonfarm payrolls cooling to a solid average of 177,000 in the second quarter and with the unemployment rate moving up but remaining"low" at 4.1 percent. He cited an increase in the supply of workers as a special positive, specifically gains for the 25-54 age group as well as a"strong pace of immigration". Like his June press conference, Powell characterized the labor market as"strong but not overheated".

Though welcoming the progress, Powell said the Fed is maintaining its restrictive stance to continue to reduce price pressures and won't cut rates until officials have"greater confidence" that inflation has fully moderated.

In the question-and-answer period, Powell said that the July 31 decision was unanimous among all FOMC participants, not just the voters. He said that recent economic data had"added to our confidence", but that it will take"more good data to strengthen that confidence." He said that at present, monetary policy is"well-prepared" to respond to any weakness in the US economy.

Powell did not rule out a rate cut at the upcoming September 17-18 meeting. He said a cut could come as soon as the next meeting, but also said it will be the"totality" of the data that will guide the decision. Powell said,"We haven't made any decisions about any future meeting." However, he also said,"The time is coming," when cutting rates will be appropriate.

Powell was adamant that monetary policy decisions are made based on the economic data and anecdotal evidence provided by businesses across the 12 districts. When asked if the FOMC took into account the economic platforms of the two major presidential contenders, Powell said,"We absolutely do not do that," and that policy decisions do not take into account possible outcomes of an election.

Definition

The Fed announced in 2011 that then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economic projections. The purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. According to the Fed, the"introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication." The press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. Beginning in 2019, the briefing will be held after each FOMC meeting. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not.

Description

The Fed’s meeting statement and economic projections can move financial markets. However, the Fed’s meeting statement — which indicates any changes in monetary policy—typically is very concise and lacking in detail. However, the Fed now releases its economic forecasts four times a year. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement during the months of March, June, September, and December. After each of the 8 Fed meetings, the chair holds a press conference to explain the forecasts and other policy issues. The chair’s press conference allows for the financial markets and public in general to learn more about why and how the monetary policy decision was made and to learn more about FOMC views on the direction of the economy—including real growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.
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