Highlights
Powell cited progress in its inflation fight during the second quarter, saying nominal wage growth has eased and that the PCE and PCE core indexes, at 2.5 and 2.6 percent respectively, have moved closer to the Fed's 2.0 percent goal.
He said the labor market is in"better balance" with nonfarm payrolls cooling to a solid average of 177,000 in the second quarter and with the unemployment rate moving up but remaining"low" at 4.1 percent. He cited an increase in the supply of workers as a special positive, specifically gains for the 25-54 age group as well as a"strong pace of immigration". Like his June press conference, Powell characterized the labor market as"strong but not overheated".
Though welcoming the progress, Powell said the Fed is maintaining its restrictive stance to continue to reduce price pressures and won't cut rates until officials have"greater confidence" that inflation has fully moderated.
In the question-and-answer period, Powell said that the July 31 decision was unanimous among all FOMC participants, not just the voters. He said that recent economic data had"added to our confidence", but that it will take"more good data to strengthen that confidence." He said that at present, monetary policy is"well-prepared" to respond to any weakness in the US economy.
Powell did not rule out a rate cut at the upcoming September 17-18 meeting. He said a cut could come as soon as the next meeting, but also said it will be the"totality" of the data that will guide the decision. Powell said,"We haven't made any decisions about any future meeting." However, he also said,"The time is coming," when cutting rates will be appropriate.
Powell was adamant that monetary policy decisions are made based on the economic data and anecdotal evidence provided by businesses across the 12 districts. When asked if the FOMC took into account the economic platforms of the two major presidential contenders, Powell said,"We absolutely do not do that," and that policy decisions do not take into account possible outcomes of an election.