The MBA mortgage applications index is 3.9 percent higher in the July 12 week. It is 1.8 percent higher than four weeks ago and 1.6 percent higher than a year earlier. The purchase index is 2.7 percent lower in the current week and 3.8 percent lower than four weeks ago and 14.0 percent lower than a year earlier. The refinancing index is 15.2 percent higher and is 10.9 percent higher than four weeks ago and 37.3 percent higher than a year earlier. In the July 12 week, refinancing accounted for 38.8 percent of mortgage applications compared to 34.9 percent in the prior week.

Potential homebuyers may be putting off purchasing in the hope of locking in a lower rate mortgage and are waiting to see if the current declines settle down. Some of those who took out a mortgage when rates were well above 7 percent back in the September-November 2023 period may see a refinancing opportunity now, or it could be that some of those who took out an adjustable-rate mortgage then are acting to secure a fixed rate loan.

The fixed-rate mortgage index is 4.3 percent higher in the July 12 week. It is 2.0 percent higher than four weeks ago and 2.2 percent higher than this week last year. The adjustable-rate mortgage index is 3.1 percent lower and is 1.9 percent lower than four weeks ago and 7.1 percent lower than a year ago.

The contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.87 percent in the current week. This is 13 basis points lower than the prior week, 7 basis points lower than four weeks ago, and the same as a year earlier. The contract rate for a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage is 6.33 percent in the week. This is 11 basis points higher than the prior week, 6 basis points higher than four weeks ago, and 6 basis points higher than a year earlier. In the July 12 week, adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 5.8 percent of mortgage applications compared to 6.2 percent in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.

Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.