Highlights
Before the European and US markets open, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its policy decision at 1430 AEST (0430 GMT/0030 EDT) Tuesday. The bank is widely expected to leave its policy rate at 4.35 percent for a fifth straight meeting after raising it by 25 basis points to 4.35 percent in November and having left rates on hold at its previous four meetings. In March, the RBA said its policy board expects it will take some time before inflation is sustainably in the target range of 2 to 3 percent. Recent data indicate that inflation is easing but declining more slowly than expected, the RBA said. Governor Michele Bullock told reporters after the May meeting that it is a bit too soon to declare a victory in fighting inflation. We think policy is restrictive, she said. We don't think we necessarily have to tighten again but we can't rule it out. If we have to, we will.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show sentiment is improving. Current conditions are expected to improve in June to minus 67.0 versus May's minus 72.3 which, though weak, easily beat the consensus. The report's expectations component (economic sentiment) is seen rising to 50.0 from May's 47.1 which, for the ninth month in a row, was also above the consensus.
In the Eurozone's harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), no revisions are expected to the provisional data, leaving the yearly core rate at 2.6 percent for May, down from April's final 2.4 percent. The narrow core reading is also seen unrevised at 2.9 percent, which would be lower than 2.7 percent in April.
US retail sales for May are expected to rise a modest 0.3 percent versus no change in April, which was weaker than expected. April's ex-auto sales increased 0.2 percent, with May expected at a 0.3 percent increase as is the ex-auto ex-gas reading.
After no change in April, industrial production is expected to rise 0.3 percent in May. Manufacturing output is expected to rise 0.2 percent after slipping 0.3 percent. Capacity utilization is estimated at 78.6 percent, up from 78.4 percent in April.
Business inventories in April are expected to rise 0.3 percent following a 0.1 percent draw in March as a 0.4 percent decline for wholesalers offset small builds for manufacturers and retailers.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will participate in an MNI Webcast discussion at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT).
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will speak before the Lawrence Partnership Annual Meeting & 10th Year Anniversary at 11:40 a.m. EDT (1540 GMT).
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will speak at CFA Society St. Louis luncheon at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Headliners Club Speaker Series at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in"Economic and Monetary Policy" panel before hybrid 2024 Marshall Forum at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT).
Japanese export values are forecast to rise 16.1 percent for a sixth straight year-over-year increase in May after rising 8.3 percent in April, led by automobiles, semiconductors and chip-making equipment as seen in the previous month. Import values are expected to climb 11.4 percent for a second straight rise after rebounding 8.3 percent on higher demand for computers, smartphones and drugs. The trade balance is forecast to show a ¥1,298.5 billion (¥1.26 trillion) deficit after recording a revised ¥465.6 billion deficit in April and a ¥387.0 billion surplus in March. It would be narrower than a ¥1,382.3 billion (¥1.38 trillion) deficit in May 2023 and a record shortfall of ¥3,506.43 billion (¥3.51 trillion) hit in January 2023.
The ZEW monthly survey of financial experts in Germany is likely to show sentiment is improving. Current conditions are expected to improve in June to minus 67.0 versus May's minus 72.3 which, though weak, easily beat the consensus. The report's expectations component (economic sentiment) is seen rising to 50.0 from May's 47.1 which, for the ninth month in a row, was also above the consensus.
In the Eurozone's harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP), no revisions are expected to the provisional data, leaving the yearly core rate at 2.6 percent for May, down from April's final 2.4 percent. The narrow core reading is also seen unrevised at 2.9 percent, which would be lower than 2.7 percent in April.
US retail sales for May are expected to rise a modest 0.3 percent versus no change in April, which was weaker than expected. April's ex-auto sales increased 0.2 percent, with May expected at a 0.3 percent increase as is the ex-auto ex-gas reading.
After no change in April, industrial production is expected to rise 0.3 percent in May. Manufacturing output is expected to rise 0.2 percent after slipping 0.3 percent. Capacity utilization is estimated at 78.6 percent, up from 78.4 percent in April.
Business inventories in April are expected to rise 0.3 percent following a 0.1 percent draw in March as a 0.4 percent decline for wholesalers offset small builds for manufacturers and retailers.
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Barkin will participate in an MNI Webcast discussion at 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT).
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins will speak before the Lawrence Partnership Annual Meeting & 10th Year Anniversary at 11:40 a.m. EDT (1540 GMT).
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem will speak at CFA Society St. Louis luncheon at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan will participate in a moderated question-and-answer session before the Headliners Club Speaker Series at 1 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT).
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee to participate in"Economic and Monetary Policy" panel before hybrid 2024 Marshall Forum at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT).
Japanese export values are forecast to rise 16.1 percent for a sixth straight year-over-year increase in May after rising 8.3 percent in April, led by automobiles, semiconductors and chip-making equipment as seen in the previous month. Import values are expected to climb 11.4 percent for a second straight rise after rebounding 8.3 percent on higher demand for computers, smartphones and drugs. The trade balance is forecast to show a ¥1,298.5 billion (¥1.26 trillion) deficit after recording a revised ¥465.6 billion deficit in April and a ¥387.0 billion surplus in March. It would be narrower than a ¥1,382.3 billion (¥1.38 trillion) deficit in May 2023 and a record shortfall of ¥3,506.43 billion (¥3.51 trillion) hit in January 2023.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
