Highlights
Switzerland's seasonally adjusted rate is expected to be unchanged from April's 2.3 percent.
German manufacturing orders are expected to increase a monthly 0.5 percent in April to reverse March's weaker-than-expected 0.4 percent decline.
Italian retail sales are expected to increase 0.3 percent on the month after a disappointingly flat performance in March.
The UK construction purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to ease from April's surprisingly firm 53.0 to 52.3 in May.
In the Eurozone, retail sales volumes in April are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month after March's favorable 0.8 percent monthly rise.
At 8:15 a.m. EDT (1415 CET/1215 GMT), the European Central Bank will release its monetary policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points putting the refi rate at 4.25 percent and the deposit rate at 3.75 percent, following in the footsteps of the Bank of Canada that lowered its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent on Wednesday. The move would also follow the lead of Sweden's Riksbank that conducted its first rate reduction in eight years in May by lowering its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. In March, the Swiss National Bank made a surprise move to cut its key interest rate, becoming the first major central bank to ease rates during the current cycle.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a post-meeting news conference at 8:45 a.m. EDT (1445 CET/1345 GMT).
Among US data, a deficit of $75.2 billion is expected in April for total goods and services trade which would compare with a $69.4 billion deficit in March. Advance data on the goods side of April's report showed a very large $7.1 billion rise in the deficit as a surge in imports offset respectable growth in exports.
New jobless claims for the June 1 week are expected to hold steady at 216,000 versus 219,000 and 216,000 in the two prior weeks.
The second estimate for first-quarter nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 0.2 percent versus a 0.3 percent annualized increase in the first estimate. Unit labor costs are expected to hold at the first estimate increase of 4.7 percent.
In Canada, April's trade balance is seen in deficit of C$1.5 billion versus March's deficit of C$2.3 billion that was pulled lower by a sharp drop in exports.
Japan's real household spending is forecast to post its first year-over-year increase in 14 months in April, up a slight 0.5 percent (some project a continued decline), thanks to a high pace of wage hikes by major firms. It would follow a smaller-than-expected 1.2 percent drop in March, which was caused by lower electricity bills for February's mild weather and waning pent-up demand for traveling. Consumers remain cautious amid elevated costs for food and an expected rise in utilities while resumed vehicle production and shipments in March after suspension for nearly two months should support automobile purchases going forward.
On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are forecast to be nearly flat, up a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent, for a third straight increase after recording a stronger-than-expected 1.2 percent gain in March backed by solid demand for formal wear for graduation and entrance ceremonies.
German manufacturing orders are expected to increase a monthly 0.5 percent in April to reverse March's weaker-than-expected 0.4 percent decline.
Italian retail sales are expected to increase 0.3 percent on the month after a disappointingly flat performance in March.
The UK construction purchasing managers' index (PMI) is expected to ease from April's surprisingly firm 53.0 to 52.3 in May.
In the Eurozone, retail sales volumes in April are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month after March's favorable 0.8 percent monthly rise.
At 8:15 a.m. EDT (1415 CET/1215 GMT), the European Central Bank will release its monetary policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points putting the refi rate at 4.25 percent and the deposit rate at 3.75 percent, following in the footsteps of the Bank of Canada that lowered its overnight rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent on Wednesday. The move would also follow the lead of Sweden's Riksbank that conducted its first rate reduction in eight years in May by lowering its key rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent. In March, the Swiss National Bank made a surprise move to cut its key interest rate, becoming the first major central bank to ease rates during the current cycle.
ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a post-meeting news conference at 8:45 a.m. EDT (1445 CET/1345 GMT).
Among US data, a deficit of $75.2 billion is expected in April for total goods and services trade which would compare with a $69.4 billion deficit in March. Advance data on the goods side of April's report showed a very large $7.1 billion rise in the deficit as a surge in imports offset respectable growth in exports.
New jobless claims for the June 1 week are expected to hold steady at 216,000 versus 219,000 and 216,000 in the two prior weeks.
The second estimate for first-quarter nonfarm productivity is expected to rise 0.2 percent versus a 0.3 percent annualized increase in the first estimate. Unit labor costs are expected to hold at the first estimate increase of 4.7 percent.
In Canada, April's trade balance is seen in deficit of C$1.5 billion versus March's deficit of C$2.3 billion that was pulled lower by a sharp drop in exports.
Japan's real household spending is forecast to post its first year-over-year increase in 14 months in April, up a slight 0.5 percent (some project a continued decline), thanks to a high pace of wage hikes by major firms. It would follow a smaller-than-expected 1.2 percent drop in March, which was caused by lower electricity bills for February's mild weather and waning pent-up demand for traveling. Consumers remain cautious amid elevated costs for food and an expected rise in utilities while resumed vehicle production and shipments in March after suspension for nearly two months should support automobile purchases going forward.
On the month, real average expenditures by households with two or more people are forecast to be nearly flat, up a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent, for a third straight increase after recording a stronger-than-expected 1.2 percent gain in March backed by solid demand for formal wear for graduation and entrance ceremonies.
Definition
Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.
Description
Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.
