| Consensus | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | A$5.8B | A$6.548B | A$5.02B | A$4.841B |
| Imports - M/M | -7.2% | 4.2% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 10.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | |
| Exports - M/M | -2.5% | 0.1% | -0.6% | |
| Exports -Y/Y | -5.2% | -12.1% |
Highlights
Australia's goods trade surplus widened from a revised A$4.841 billion in March to A$6.548 billion in April, above the consensus forecast of A$5.8 billion. Exports fell at a more pronounced rate while imports fell sharply after a previous increase.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 2.5 percent on the month in April after a decline of 0.6 percent in March. Exports of non-rural goods recorded a third consecutive decline, while exports of rural goods fell after a previous increase. Exports fell 5.2 percent on the year in April after a decline of 12.1 percent in March.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose fell 7.2 percent on the month in April, weakening sharply from growth of 4.2 percent in March. Imports of consumption good, capital goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods all fell after previous increases. Total imports rose 10.7 percent on the year in April after increasing 1.5 percent in March.
In seasonally adjusted terms, the value of exports fell 2.5 percent on the month in April after a decline of 0.6 percent in March. Exports of non-rural goods recorded a third consecutive decline, while exports of rural goods fell after a previous increase. Exports fell 5.2 percent on the year in April after a decline of 12.1 percent in March.
Seasonally adjusted imports rose fell 7.2 percent on the month in April, weakening sharply from growth of 4.2 percent in March. Imports of consumption good, capital goods and intermediate and other merchandise goods all fell after previous increases. Total imports rose 10.7 percent on the year in April after increasing 1.5 percent in March.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Consensus for international trade in goods in April is a surplus of A$5.8 billion versus March's A$5.0 billion surplus that was lower than expected as exports extended their slump.
Definition
The Goods Trade Balance measures the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the Australian dollar in the foreign exchange market. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods while exports show the demand for Australian goods in its major export market China and elsewhere. The currency can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance since a trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. A word of caution -- the data are subject to large monthly revisions. Therefore, it can be misleading to form opinions on the basis of one month's data.
