| U.S. Acreage (1000 Acres) | ||||||
| 2023 Mar 31 Intentions | 2023 Jun 30 Planted | 2023 Planted Final | 2024 W Wheat Seedings | 2024 March Intentions | 2024 Jun 28 Planted | |
| Corn | 91,996 | 94,096 | 94,641 | 90,036 | 91,475 | |
| Wheat | ||||||
| Wheat, All | 49,855 | 49,628 | 49,575 | 47,498 | 47,240 | |
| Winter | 37,505 | 37,005 | 36,699 | 34,425 | 34,135 | 33,805 |
| Hard Red | 24,000 | |||||
| Soft Red | 6,860 | |||||
| White | 3,540 | |||||
| Durum | 1,780 | 1,483 | 1,676 | 2,028 | 2,165 | |
| Other Spring | 10,570 | 11,140 | 11,200 | 11,335 | 11,270 | |
| Hard Red Spring | ||||||
| Soybeans | 87,505 | 83,505 | 83,600 | 86,510 | 86,100 | |
| Cotton | ||||||
| Cotton, All | 11,256 | 11,087 | 10,230 | 10,673 | 11,670 | |
| Upland | 11,102 | 10,978 | 10,083 | 10,470 | 11,488 | |
| Amer-Pima | 154 | 109 | 147 | 203 | 182 | |
| U.S. 2024 Winter Wheat Seedings - Million Acres | |||||
| Estimates | USDA | ||||
| Average | Low | High | 2023 | ||
| Corn | 90.4 | 89.0 | 91.3 | 94.6 | |
| Soybean | 86.8 | 85.5 | 87.5 | 83.6 | |
| All Wheat | 47.7 | 47.1 | 49.0 | 49.6 | |
| Winter Wheat | 34.2 | 34.0 | 35.3 | 36.7 | |
| Spring Wheat | 11.3 | 11.2 | 11.7 | 11.2 | |
| Durum Wheat | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | |
Highlights
SOYBEANS:
Soybean acreage came in at 86.1 million acres versus an average expectation of 86.7 million acres and a range of 85.5 to 87.5 million. The March Planting Intentions report had soybean acreage at 86.5 million acres. June acreage had been below the average guess for the last 9 consecutive years that trend continued again in this report. Final acreage may be cut again with the flooding and drowned out spots across the Midwest yet to be fully assessed. US soybean stocks on June 1 totaled 970 million bushels versus 963 million expected (range 861 million to 1.015 million). This was up from 796 million on June 1, 2023, and close enough to the estimates to be considered neutral.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Lower than expected bean acres is supportive but still within the estimate range. Most analysts anticipate a further cut once flooded and drowned out acres are fully measured. Bean stocks were slightly higher-than-expected but the acreage report is more important. Traders will return their focus to the weather next week. This USDA report will be quickly digested, and weather will be the dominant focus week as an active precipitation pattern is expected across most of the Midwest, keeping overall crop stress limited. A sustained rally is not expected but prices could easily see some short covering next week.
CORN:
Corn acreage came in at 91.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 90.3 million acres and a range of expectations from 89.2 to 91.3 million. The March Planting Intentions report had corn acreage at 90 million acres. June acreage had been above the average guess in 6 of the last 10 years and now 7 of the last 10. With the planting pace finishing slightly quicker than normal, farmers were able to get all their acres in. US corn stocks on June 1 totaled 4.993 billion bushels versus 4.874 billion expected (range 4.675-5.013 billion). This was up from 4.103 billion on June 1, 2023, and the highest in 4 years.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The double whammy of bearish acreage and bearish grain stocks is pressing the market lower. The higher acreage gives the market a bit more cushion for any adverse US weather and will drive weak longs out of the market. This potentially sets up a sold-out scenario that could put in a short-term low, at least. Weather next week looks mostly favorable across the Midwest with some heat stress in the southeastern corn belt. Black Sea weather stress will be rising next week with a drier pattern and warmer temperatures and is likely to offer some support after the recent break. We look for a rebound next week after the current long liquidation runs its course.
WHEAT:
US all wheat stocks on June 1 totaled 702 million bushels versus 683 million expected (range 644-705 million). This was up from 570 million on June 1, 2023, and the highest since 2021. All Wheat acreage came in at 47.24 million acres versus an average expectation of 47.7 million acres and a range of expectations from 47.1 to 49.7 million. The March Planting Intentions report had wheat acreage at 47.5 million acres. Other Spring Wheat planting came in at 11.3 million acres versus 11.3 million expected (range 11-11.7 million) and 11.3 million in 2023 in March. Durum planting came in 2.2 million acres versus 2.0 million expected (range 1.8-2.1 million) and 2.0 million in March.
PRICE OUTLOOK: No major surprises in the report. Although wheat stocks were at the upper end of the range of guesses and acreage was at the low-end of estimates, which is a bit bullish. Next week, the market may be more focused on the fact US harvest has passed 50% complete and lower prices have stimulated global demand. After an extreme downward swing over the last month, we view wheat prices as having potential for a corrective rebound.
Soybean acreage came in at 86.1 million acres versus an average expectation of 86.7 million acres and a range of 85.5 to 87.5 million. The March Planting Intentions report had soybean acreage at 86.5 million acres. June acreage had been below the average guess for the last 9 consecutive years that trend continued again in this report. Final acreage may be cut again with the flooding and drowned out spots across the Midwest yet to be fully assessed. US soybean stocks on June 1 totaled 970 million bushels versus 963 million expected (range 861 million to 1.015 million). This was up from 796 million on June 1, 2023, and close enough to the estimates to be considered neutral.
PRICE OUTLOOK: Lower than expected bean acres is supportive but still within the estimate range. Most analysts anticipate a further cut once flooded and drowned out acres are fully measured. Bean stocks were slightly higher-than-expected but the acreage report is more important. Traders will return their focus to the weather next week. This USDA report will be quickly digested, and weather will be the dominant focus week as an active precipitation pattern is expected across most of the Midwest, keeping overall crop stress limited. A sustained rally is not expected but prices could easily see some short covering next week.
CORN:
Corn acreage came in at 91.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 90.3 million acres and a range of expectations from 89.2 to 91.3 million. The March Planting Intentions report had corn acreage at 90 million acres. June acreage had been above the average guess in 6 of the last 10 years and now 7 of the last 10. With the planting pace finishing slightly quicker than normal, farmers were able to get all their acres in. US corn stocks on June 1 totaled 4.993 billion bushels versus 4.874 billion expected (range 4.675-5.013 billion). This was up from 4.103 billion on June 1, 2023, and the highest in 4 years.
PRICE OUTLOOK: The double whammy of bearish acreage and bearish grain stocks is pressing the market lower. The higher acreage gives the market a bit more cushion for any adverse US weather and will drive weak longs out of the market. This potentially sets up a sold-out scenario that could put in a short-term low, at least. Weather next week looks mostly favorable across the Midwest with some heat stress in the southeastern corn belt. Black Sea weather stress will be rising next week with a drier pattern and warmer temperatures and is likely to offer some support after the recent break. We look for a rebound next week after the current long liquidation runs its course.
WHEAT:
US all wheat stocks on June 1 totaled 702 million bushels versus 683 million expected (range 644-705 million). This was up from 570 million on June 1, 2023, and the highest since 2021. All Wheat acreage came in at 47.24 million acres versus an average expectation of 47.7 million acres and a range of expectations from 47.1 to 49.7 million. The March Planting Intentions report had wheat acreage at 47.5 million acres. Other Spring Wheat planting came in at 11.3 million acres versus 11.3 million expected (range 11-11.7 million) and 11.3 million in 2023 in March. Durum planting came in 2.2 million acres versus 2.0 million expected (range 1.8-2.1 million) and 2.0 million in March.
PRICE OUTLOOK: No major surprises in the report. Although wheat stocks were at the upper end of the range of guesses and acreage was at the low-end of estimates, which is a bit bullish. Next week, the market may be more focused on the fact US harvest has passed 50% complete and lower prices have stimulated global demand. After an extreme downward swing over the last month, we view wheat prices as having potential for a corrective rebound.
Definition
This full-text annual report presents acreage by planted and/or harvested areas by state for corn, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, rye, sorghum, rice, peanuts, sunflower, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, safflower, mustard seed, cotton, dry beans, potatoes, sweet potatoes, sugarbeets, alfalfa hay, tobacco, and sugarcane. Starting in 2000, genetically modified plants are reported for selected crops. The Acreage report is a supplement to Crop Production, and the 1986, 1987, 1988, and 1989 issues of Acreage are included in the July Crop Production report itself.
Description
This report provides a complete look at plantings for the upcoming summer crops, a key component in determining production for the year. The data is based on surveys collected from growers during the first two weeks of June, a when most have completed or have nearly completed planting. In most years this provides a reliable indicator for planted acreage for the season.* The USDA will use this data in their monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) projections for the coming year’s production.
Analysts watch the June Acreage numbers to see how they differ from the Prospective Plantings estimates that were reported in March, as that will affect production estimates. Changes to the acreage number (and therefore production estimates) will be included in the USDA’s July Supply/Demand (WASDE) report.
* In 2019, an unusually cold and wet spring in the US Midwest delayed plantings to an extent that the USDA was compelled to resurvey growers later in the summer.
Analysts watch the June Acreage numbers to see how they differ from the Prospective Plantings estimates that were reported in March, as that will affect production estimates. Changes to the acreage number (and therefore production estimates) will be included in the USDA’s July Supply/Demand (WASDE) report.
* In 2019, an unusually cold and wet spring in the US Midwest delayed plantings to an extent that the USDA was compelled to resurvey growers later in the summer.
