SOYBEANS:
Soybean acreage came in at 86.1 million acres versus an average expectation of 86.7 million acres and a range of 85.5 to 87.5 million. The March Planting Intentions report had soybean acreage at 86.5 million acres. June acreage had been below the average guess for the last 9 consecutive years that trend continued again in this report. Final acreage may be cut again with the flooding and drowned out spots across the Midwest yet to be fully assessed. US soybean stocks on June 1 totaled 970 million bushels versus 963 million expected (range 861 million to 1.015 million). This was up from 796 million on June 1, 2023, and close enough to the estimates to be considered neutral.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Lower than expected bean acres is supportive but still within the estimate range. Most analysts anticipate a further cut once flooded and drowned out acres are fully measured. Bean stocks were slightly higher-than-expected but the acreage report is more important. Traders will return their focus to the weather next week. This USDA report will be quickly digested, and weather will be the dominant focus week as an active precipitation pattern is expected across most of the Midwest, keeping overall crop stress limited. A sustained rally is not expected but prices could easily see some short covering next week.

CORN:
Corn acreage came in at 91.5 million acres versus an average expectation of 90.3 million acres and a range of expectations from 89.2 to 91.3 million. The March Planting Intentions report had corn acreage at 90 million acres. June acreage had been above the average guess in 6 of the last 10 years and now 7 of the last 10. With the planting pace finishing slightly quicker than normal, farmers were able to get all their acres in. US corn stocks on June 1 totaled 4.993 billion bushels versus 4.874 billion expected (range 4.675-5.013 billion). This was up from 4.103 billion on June 1, 2023, and the highest in 4 years.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The double whammy of bearish acreage and bearish grain stocks is pressing the market lower. The higher acreage gives the market a bit more cushion for any adverse US weather and will drive weak longs out of the market. This potentially sets up a sold-out scenario that could put in a short-term low, at least. Weather next week looks mostly favorable across the Midwest with some heat stress in the southeastern corn belt. Black Sea weather stress will be rising next week with a drier pattern and warmer temperatures and is likely to offer some support after the recent break. We look for a rebound next week after the current long liquidation runs its course.

WHEAT:
US all wheat stocks on June 1 totaled 702 million bushels versus 683 million expected (range 644-705 million). This was up from 570 million on June 1, 2023, and the highest since 2021. All Wheat acreage came in at 47.24 million acres versus an average expectation of 47.7 million acres and a range of expectations from 47.1 to 49.7 million. The March Planting Intentions report had wheat acreage at 47.5 million acres. Other Spring Wheat planting came in at 11.3 million acres versus 11.3 million expected (range 11-11.7 million) and 11.3 million in 2023 in March. Durum planting came in 2.2 million acres versus 2.0 million expected (range 1.8-2.1 million) and 2.0 million in March.

PRICE OUTLOOK: No major surprises in the report. Although wheat stocks were at the upper end of the range of guesses and acreage was at the low-end of estimates, which is a bit bullish. Next week, the market may be more focused on the fact US harvest has passed 50% complete and lower prices have stimulated global demand. After an extreme downward swing over the last month, we view wheat prices as having potential for a corrective rebound.

This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.

Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.

September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.

The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.

The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.