| Recent History | |||||||
| On Feed | Placements | Marketings | On Feed | ||||
| Month | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | Million Head | % YoY | 90+ Days |
| Dec-23 | 12.016 | 102.4% | 1.698 | 95.2% | 1.724 | 99.0% | 5.949 |
| Jan-24 | 11.930 | 101.7% | 1.791 | 92.5% | 1.843 | 99.8% | 6.366 |
| Feb-24 | 11.797 | 100.4% | 1.890 | 109.7% | 1.793 | 103.4% | 6.638 |
| Mar-24 | 11.838 | 101.3% | 1.752 | 88.0% | 1.707 | 86.3% | 6.656 |
| Apr-24 | 11.826 | 101.5% | 1.656 | 94.2% | 1.872 | 110.1% | 6.587 |
| May-24 | 11.554 | 99.1% | 2.046 | 104.3% | 1.955 | 100.2% | 6.425 |
| Jun-24 | 11.583 | 99.9% | - | - | - | - | 6.304 |
| Cattle on Feed Estimates | |||||
| Estimates | |||||
| As Of | Average | Low | High | Last Year | |
| On Feed | Jun | 99.1% | 98.3% | 100.7% | 97.0% |
| Placements | May | 98.7% | 95.0% | 102.4% | 104.6% |
| Marketings | May | 100.2% | 99.3% | 101.2% | 101.7% |
Highlights
The USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed placements for the month of May at 104.3% versus trade expectations of 98.7% and a range of 95.0% to 102.4%. Marketings for May came in at 100.2% of last year as compared with the average estimate of 100.2% and a range of 99.3% to 101.2%. Cattle on Feed supply as of June 1st came in at 99.9% of last year versus the average trade estimate of 99.1% with a range of 98.3% to 100.7%.
Slightly higher on feed numbers than expected is slightly bearish but clearly the much higher than expected placement number stands out on today's report and with Live Cattle closing out the week on a strong note, we could see selling Monday morning out of the gate, although likely more so in Feeder Cattle. However, live cattle cash bids this afternoon are rising with Kansas bids now $190 and being passed. Strong cash trade this afternoon could mitigate the downside action Monday and keep the recent uptrend intact. Marketings were neutral, coming in right on the guesses.
Slightly higher on feed numbers than expected is slightly bearish but clearly the much higher than expected placement number stands out on today's report and with Live Cattle closing out the week on a strong note, we could see selling Monday morning out of the gate, although likely more so in Feeder Cattle. However, live cattle cash bids this afternoon are rising with Kansas bids now $190 and being passed. Strong cash trade this afternoon could mitigate the downside action Monday and keep the recent uptrend intact. Marketings were neutral, coming in right on the guesses.
Definition
This file contains the monthly total number of cattle and calves on feed, placements, marketings, and other disappearances; by class and feedlot capacity for selected states; number of feedlots and fed cattle marketings by size groups for selected states. Data is organized by state and by U.S.
Description
This report offers a timely update on the current makeup of the beef cattle herd. It is probably the most-watched of the USDA reports for the cattle markets and can be a market-moving event if it contains a surprise. The marketings number provides an indicator of recent demand and has the ability to affect the price of nearby futures contracts. The placements number offers insight on the future supply of market ready cattle and has a tendency to affect the deferred contracts. Cattle are placed on feed for anywhere from 90 to 180 days, so a large placements number in June would project large market-ready supply in the fall. Both the placements and the marketings numbers inform the on feed number, which is a measure of current supply. The report offers state-by-state breakdowns as well by various weight groupings, providing an opportunity for further, in-depth analysis. Cattle on Feed reports are usually released on Friday afternoons after the cattle futures market closes, and the results will be reflected on the opening the following Monday morning.
