ConsensusActualPrevious
Employment - M/M15,00027,00090,400
Unemployment Rate6.2%6.2%6.1%
Participation Rate65.4%65.4%

Highlights

May employment rose a modest 27,000 or 0.1 percent from April. This compared with a forecast of 15,000 in an Econoday survey. The unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2 percent in May from 6.1 percent, as expected, and the participation rate was flat at 65.4 percent.

Wage growth pressure picked up in May, however, as average hourly wages among employees increased 5.1 percent year-over-year (unadjusted), up from from 4.7 percent in April. Hours worked were flat in May and up a modest 1.6 percent from a year ago. The employed portion of the population aged 15 or higher declined to 61.3 percent in May from 61.4 percent in April, its seventh decline in the last eight months, not an inspiring performance.

Full-time employment declined by 36,000 in May while part-time employment rose by 62,000. Year over year, full-time employment is up 263,000 or 1.6 percent while part-time employment is up 140,000 or 3.8 percent.

Stats Canada said unemployment has been trending up among all demographic groups over the last 12 months while more people are working part-time in their main jobs. The involuntary part-time rate was 18.2 percent in May, up from 15.4 percent a year ago.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Employment in May is expected to rise 15,000 versus April's 90,400 surge that followed, however, March's 2,200 decline. May's unemployment rate is expected to rise a tenth to 6.2 percent.

Definition

The Labour Force Survey is a key economic indicator giving an overall picture of employment and unemployment. Employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.

Description

As in the U.S., this report is used as an indicator of the health of the domestic economy. Employment trends and break-downs by industry groups highlight the strength in job creation and the implications for future sectoral activity. The unemployment rate is used as an indicator of tightness in labor markets and can foreshadow a future increase in wages. Labor force data provide investors with the earliest signs of industry performance. While other data are produced with a month or two delay, these data are available only a week to 10 days after the end of the latest month. Reactions can be dramatic - especially when the result is unanticipated.

The information in the report is invaluable for investors. By looking at employment trends in the various sectors, investors can take more strategic control of their portfolio. If employment in certain industries is growing, there could be investment opportunities in the firms within that industry.

The bond market will rally (fall) when the employment situation shows weakness (strength). The equity market often rallies with the bond market on weak data because low interest rates are good for stocks. But sometimes the two markets move in opposite directions. After all, a healthy labor market should be favorable for the stock market because it supports economic growth and corporate profits. At the same time, bond traders are more concerned about the potential for inflationary pressures.

The unemployment rate rises during cyclical downturns and falls during periods of rapid economic growth. A rising unemployment rate is associated with a weak or contracting economy and declining interest rates. Conversely, a decreasing unemployment rate is associated with an expanding economy and potentially rising interest rates. The fear is that wages will accelerate if the unemployment rate becomes too low and workers are hard to find.
Upcoming Events

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2025 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.