ConsensusActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.1%0.2%-0.1%
Year over Year0.2%0.3%-0.3%

Highlights

New Zealand's economy expanded modestly in the three months to March, after contracting in four of the previous five quarters. Conditions remain impacted by ongoing tight monetary policy put in place by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with officials committed to restricting demand as part of their efforts to lower inflation.
 
GDP rose 0.2 percent on the quarter in the three months to March after contracting 0.1 percent in the three months to December, with the economy expanding 0.3 percent on the year. The small quarter-over-quarter increase in headline GDP largely reflects stronger growth in private consumption spending and a rebound in investment spending, offset by a negative contribution to growth by net exports. On a sectoral basis, however, conditions weakened across all major sectors, with the improvement in headline growth driven by the impact of unallocated taxes.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Consensus for first-quarter GDP is marginal quarter-over-quarter expansion of 0.1 percent versus contraction of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. The year-over-year rate is seen at plus 0.2 percent versus minus 0.3 percent previously.

Definition

GDP data are a comprehensive measure of a New Zealand's overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP calculates the total market value of goods and services produced in New Zealand within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Therefore, GDP excludes intermediate goods and services and considers final aggregates only. The New Zealand System of National Accounts (NZSNA) is a comprehensive accounting framework based on an international standard (System of National Accounts, 1993).

Gross domestic product (GDP) can be measured using three approaches, namely the production, income and expenditure approaches. The production measure of GDP is derived from firm level data and estimates the value added by all producing industries in the New Zealand economy. The income measure of GDP is derived from earnings data and estimates how the income earned from these producing industries is then distributed throughout the economy as returns to labor, capital and government. The expenditure measure of GDP is derived from data estimating spending on goods and services by final end users and includes consumption, investment and exports minus the value of imports.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
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