Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
---|---|---|---|
Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Year over Year | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
HICP - M/M | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
HICP - Y/Y | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
Highlights
The final HICP also matched its flash estimate and so still shows a 0.2 percent monthly rise that boosted its yearly rate from 2.4 percent to 2.8 percent, now 0.8 percentage points above the ECB's target.
The increase in the annual CPI rate was mainly due to services where inflation climbed from 3.4 percent to an ominously high 3.9 percent. By contrast, the rate in overall goods eased from 1.2 percent to 1.0 percent but both food (0.6 percent after 0.5 percent) and energy (minus 1.1 percent after minus 1.2 percent) were also marginally higher. Consequently, core inflation held steady at 3.0 percent.
The pick-up in German HICP inflation did not prevent the ECB from cutting key interest rates last week but it probably did help to make another ease as soon as next month less likely. Today's update puts the German RPI at minus 7 and the RPI-P at minus 8. Economic activity in general is performing just slightly weaker than expected.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Germany like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The preliminary release is based on key state numbers which are released prior to the national estimate. The states include North Rhine-Westphalia, Baden-Wuerttemberg, Saxony, Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg. The preliminary estimate of the CPI follows in the same day after the last of the state releases. The data are revised about two weeks after preliminary release.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.