| Consensus | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 3-Months over 3-Months | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
Highlights
The economy unexpectedly stalled at the start of the second quarter. The flat quarterly rate followed an unrevised 0.4 percent bounce in March and was the weakest performance so far in 2024. However, 3-monthly growth still edged up a tick to 0.7 percent although the annual rate dipped by 0.1 percentage point to 0.6 percent.
The zero monthly change masked a 0.2 percent increase in services output that was essentially offset by a 0.9 percent fall in industrial production. Within the latter, manufacturing contracted fully 1.4 percent. Construction was also weak, similarly declining 1.4 percent for its third straight drop, while agriculture, forestry and fishing was just 0.1 percent firmer.
Total output remains at the record high seen in March and the April update leaves GDP 0.4 percent above its average level in the first quarter. The economy continues to recover from its mild recession at the end of 2023 but momentum is still quite soft and, despite the relative buoyancy of recent sector PMIs (May 51.2), manufacturing is not out of the woods yet. Today's update is unlikely to convince any more BoE MPC members to vote to cut Bank Rate next week. The UK RPI now stands at minus 6 and the RPI-P at minus 7, both measures indicating just a very modest degree of overall economic underperformance.
The zero monthly change masked a 0.2 percent increase in services output that was essentially offset by a 0.9 percent fall in industrial production. Within the latter, manufacturing contracted fully 1.4 percent. Construction was also weak, similarly declining 1.4 percent for its third straight drop, while agriculture, forestry and fishing was just 0.1 percent firmer.
Total output remains at the record high seen in March and the April update leaves GDP 0.4 percent above its average level in the first quarter. The economy continues to recover from its mild recession at the end of 2023 but momentum is still quite soft and, despite the relative buoyancy of recent sector PMIs (May 51.2), manufacturing is not out of the woods yet. Today's update is unlikely to convince any more BoE MPC members to vote to cut Bank Rate next week. The UK RPI now stands at minus 6 and the RPI-P at minus 7, both measures indicating just a very modest degree of overall economic underperformance.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP in the month of April is expected to rise 0.1 percent versus March's surprisingly strong 0.4 percent gain.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The monthly report is based on output data only as the income and expenditure series are not available.
Description
GDP covers all aspects of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. GDP contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. However, the monthly report is quite limited and only provides data on the main output sectors. More detailed information is available in the quarterly reports.
