ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Month over Month1.9%-0.4% to 4.1%-2.1%-7.7%
Index70.872.3

Highlights

The NAR's pending home sales index fell for a second month in a row in May, down 2.1 percent after a 7.7 percent fall in April. The index was down 6.6 percent compared to a year ago. The Econoday consensus anticipated an increase of 1.9 percent for May.

Still elevated prices and mortgage rates in April and May accounted for the weakness and will contribute to softness in future sales of existing homes. However, while the Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged around 7-percent in April and May, the first weeks in June have seen rates dip below that.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said,"The market is at an interesting point with rising inventory and lower demand. Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation in upcoming months. Inevitably, more inventory in a job-creating economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage rates descend."

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Pending home sales in May, which in April fell back an unexpected and steep 7.3 percent, are expected to rise 1.9 percent.

Definition

The National Association of Realtors developed the pending home sales index as a leading indicator of housing activity. Specifically, it is a leading indicator of existing home sales, not new home sales. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed, but not yet closed. It usually takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale.

Description

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the pending home sales index which measures home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.

Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.

The National Association of Realtors moved up its publication schedule in 2011. Prior to 2011, the reference month was two months trailing the release date. In 2011, the reference month trails only by one month to the release month.
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