| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | 0.0% | -0.6% to 0.7% | -0.4% | 0.9% | |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | 1.5% | 0.9% to 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Export Prices - M/M | 0.0% | -0.9% to 0.3% | -0.6% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | 0.6% | -1.0% | -0.9% |
Highlights
The import price index is down 0.4 percent in May from April after an unrevised 0.9 percent gain in April from March. The May percent change is below the consensus of no change in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
The import price index reflects a greater-than-expected decline in the index for fuel prices of 2.0 percent in May, while nonfuel import prices are down 0.3 percent. Import prices are broadly lower due to lower energy costs which are priced in dollars and to a lesser extent to a small dip in the value of the dollar. The import price index is up 1.1 percent year-over-year.
May import prices are down 1.6 percent for foods, feeds, and beverages, and down 0.4 percent for industrial supplies and materials excluding fuels. Import prices for capital goods are down 0.1 percent, automotive and parts down 0.1 percent, and consumer goods excluding autos down 0.2 percent.
The export price index is down 0.6 in May from April after a small upward revision to up 0.6 percent in April from March. The consensus in the Econoday survey for May was for no change. While the index for agricultural commodities exports is up 0.5 percent in May, nonagricultural commodities with a relative importance of about 90 percent for the index are down 0.8 percent. The export price index is up 0.6 percent year-over-year.
Prices for exported foods, feeds, and beverages are up 0.9 percent in May, and industrial supplies and materials are down 2.0 percent. Prices for exported capital goods are up 0.1 percent in May, automotive and parts unchanged from the prior month, and consumer goods excluding autos up 0.1 percent.
The only services components in the report are for air freight and air passenger fares. The index for imported air freight is down 1.7 percent in May from April and up 1.5 percent year-over-year, a significant slowing in the costs of transporting goods into the US. The export index for air freight is down 1.0 percent in May from the prior month and down 5.3 percent year-over-year, indicating sending goods abroad is less expensive as well. The index for import air passenger fares is up 0.4 percent in May but down 1.6 percent compared to May 2024. The export index for air passenger fares is down 3.0 percent in May from April and down 2.5 percent compared to a year ago. Overall, the escalation in air travel costs to and from the US has eased.
The import price index reflects a greater-than-expected decline in the index for fuel prices of 2.0 percent in May, while nonfuel import prices are down 0.3 percent. Import prices are broadly lower due to lower energy costs which are priced in dollars and to a lesser extent to a small dip in the value of the dollar. The import price index is up 1.1 percent year-over-year.
May import prices are down 1.6 percent for foods, feeds, and beverages, and down 0.4 percent for industrial supplies and materials excluding fuels. Import prices for capital goods are down 0.1 percent, automotive and parts down 0.1 percent, and consumer goods excluding autos down 0.2 percent.
The export price index is down 0.6 in May from April after a small upward revision to up 0.6 percent in April from March. The consensus in the Econoday survey for May was for no change. While the index for agricultural commodities exports is up 0.5 percent in May, nonagricultural commodities with a relative importance of about 90 percent for the index are down 0.8 percent. The export price index is up 0.6 percent year-over-year.
Prices for exported foods, feeds, and beverages are up 0.9 percent in May, and industrial supplies and materials are down 2.0 percent. Prices for exported capital goods are up 0.1 percent in May, automotive and parts unchanged from the prior month, and consumer goods excluding autos up 0.1 percent.
The only services components in the report are for air freight and air passenger fares. The index for imported air freight is down 1.7 percent in May from April and up 1.5 percent year-over-year, a significant slowing in the costs of transporting goods into the US. The export index for air freight is down 1.0 percent in May from the prior month and down 5.3 percent year-over-year, indicating sending goods abroad is less expensive as well. The index for import air passenger fares is up 0.4 percent in May but down 1.6 percent compared to May 2024. The export index for air passenger fares is down 3.0 percent in May from April and down 2.5 percent compared to a year ago. Overall, the escalation in air travel costs to and from the US has eased.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices in May are expected to be unchanged versus a much higher-than-expected rise of 0.9 percent in April. Export prices, which rose 0.5 percent in April and were also higher than expected, are also seen flat in May from April.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
