ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPreviousRevised
Month over Month0.3%0.1% to 0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Year over Year6.3%6.7%

Highlights

The FHFA house price index is up 0.2 percent in April from unchanged in March. This is just below the consensus of up 0.3 percent in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The month-over-month change in prices has been uneven in recent months as homebuyers and those refinancing their current mortgages are sensitive to even small changes in mortgage rates and are tending to act when the opportunity presents to shave a few basis points off the loan rate.

The monthly average rate for a Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage was about 6.8 percent in February and March, and rose to 7.0 percent in April. At least some homebuyers and those refinancing existing properties probably had rate locks on pre-qualified loans from February and March that were closed in April.

FHFA's index is up 6.3 percent compared to a year ago and shows valuations of existing homes for sale and refinancing in April decelerating for a second month in a row, although price gains on a year-over-year basis remain substantial.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price index is expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month in April after posting a lower-than-expected 0.1 percent increase in March and surging an above-forecast 1.2 percent in February.

Definition

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (HPI) covers single-family housing, using data provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The House Price Index is derived from transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. In contrast to other house price indexes, the sample is limited by the ceiling amount for conforming loans purchased by these government-sponsored enterprises (GSE). Mortgages insured by the FHA, VA, or other federal entities are excluded because they are not"conventional" loans. The FHFA House Price Index is a repeat transactions measure. It compares prices or appraised values for similar houses.

Description

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From its peak in 2007 to its nadir in 2011, FHFA's house price index fell nearly 30 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the index finally surpassing its prior highs in 2016.
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