The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for June is down to 100.4 after 101.3 in May. The June reading is close to the consensus of 100.0 in the Econoday survey of forecasters. Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson noted that the index remains"within the same narrow range that's held throughout the past two years, as strength in the current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future".

The index for the present situation is up slightly to 141.5 in June after 140.8 in May. If consumers find the current business conditions a little less positive, perceptions of the job market remain solid.

However, the expectations index is down to 73.0 in June from 74.9 in May. In the coming six months consumers are less positive about the business outlook, while the labor market still looks good even though expected income increases are somewhat less optimistic. The report said that an expectations index below 80 usually indicates a recession in the near future. However, in spite of this component being below that threshold for the past five months, there is little reason to look for a recession unless the labor market takes a downturn.

The consumer confidence index is expected to fall back to 100.0 in June versus 102.0 in May.

The Conference Board's confidence report surveys consumers on their assessments of the labor market, business activity, and their own financial conditions. The survey is conducted by Toluna, an online community platform. (Conference Board and Toluna)

The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

This balance was achieved through much of the nineties and, in large part because of this, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains. It was during the late nineties that the consumer confidence index hit its historic peak, reaching levels that were never matched during the subsequent 2001 to 2007 expansion nor during the long expansion following the Great Recession.

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.